Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
5 signals across 1 market · $7,382 tracked · resolves Apr 12, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on who finishes third in Peru’s 2026 presidential election first round, focused on Rafael López Aliaga’s chances of taking the third-most valid votes. PolySpotter has identified $7,382 in smart money activity across 5 signals, including alerts from 87% win-rate political, election, and macro bettors.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 87% win-rate political bettor
An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought into a fast-rising Peru election market at 55¢, below the current 61¢ price.
$1,495Wallet win rate: 44%Score: 4.0 - 87% win-rate election bettor
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader with 193 resolved bets bought into a fast-rising Peru election market, making this worth watching despite the modest size.
$1,239Wallet win rate: 44%Score: 4.0 - 87% win-rate macro bettor
A proven cross-market trader with an 87% win rate sold Yes at 75¢, which translates to a buyable No position around 25¢ in a fast-rising Peru election market.
$1,053Wallet win rate: 44%Score: 4.0 - 82% win-rate political bettor
A proven profitable cross-market trader with an 82% win rate is buying into a politics market after a sharp weekly move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,798Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 82% win-rate political bettor
Surface this because an 82% win-rate serial political trader with over $322k in profits is adding a fresh position in a major election market at 81¢.
$1,797Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x784fee…5df9$3,788 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 44% wins
- 0xdc03d6…804c$3,595 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
FAQs
What is the Peru 2026 presidential election third-place market?
This Polymarket event is about the first round of Peru’s 2026 presidential election and whether Rafael López Aliaga finishes in third place by valid vote count. It is not about winning the presidency outright, but specifically the third-place ranking in the first round.
What are the current odds for Rafael López Aliaga finishing third?
The live odds are shown on the market page and move as traders buy and sell positions. PolySpotter helps interpret those moves by highlighting smart money activity from historically successful political and election bettors.
Who is betting on this Peru election prediction market?
PolySpotter has tracked $7,382 in smart money across this event, including signals from 87% win-rate political, election, and macro bettors, plus multiple 82% win-rate political bettors.
What is the smart money doing in this market?
The recent alerts suggest experienced politics-focused traders are active in the market. These signals can be useful for seeing whether sharp bettors are taking a position before the broader market fully reacts.
When does this Peru election market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after Peru’s first-round presidential election, scheduled for April 12, 2026, based on the official valid vote totals used to determine which listed candidate received the third-most votes.