Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,382.

Categories: Global Elections, Peru, Politics, Elections, Peru Election, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

82% win-rate political bettor

Surface this because an 82% win-rate serial political trader with over $322k in profits is adding a fresh position in a major election market at 81¢.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $322,874 across 66 settled markets
They have traded 90 markets across 51 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
Bought Yes at 81¢ in a fairly liquid Peru election market, signaling confidence even after a big 1-week move

$1,797 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% win-rate political bettor

A proven profitable cross-market trader with an 82% win rate is buying into a politics market after a sharp weekly move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $323k overall
They have traded 89 markets across 50 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
They bought at 81¢ in a market up 52% this week, signaling conviction even after the move

$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

87% win-rate macro bettor

A proven cross-market trader with an 87% win rate sold Yes at 75¢, which translates to a buyable No position around 25¢ in a fast-rising Peru election market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 193 settled bets
They trade across 34 events and 72 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
They sold Yes at 75¢, which means the copyable side is No around 25¢ while the market has recently surged

$1,053 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate election bettor

A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader with 193 resolved bets bought into a fast-rising Peru election market, making this worth watching despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up $272k across 193 resolved markets
They trade across 34 events and 72 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
Bought Yes at 62¢ in a market up 32 points in a day, showing willingness to pay up for this thesis

$1,239 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate political bettor

An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought into a fast-rising Peru election market at 55¢, below the current 61¢ price.

This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up $272k overall.
They trade across 71 markets in 33 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
Bought Yes at 55¢ and the market is already at 61¢ after a 34-point move in the last day.

$1,495 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%