Part of: Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,382.
Categories: Global Elections, Peru, Politics, Elections, Peru Election, rewards 200, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
82% win-rate political bettor
Surface this because an 82% win-rate serial political trader with over $322k in profits is adding a fresh position in a major election market at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $322,874 across 66 settled markets
- They have traded 90 markets across 51 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 81¢ in a fairly liquid Peru election market, signaling confidence even after a big 1-week move
$1,797 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
82% win-rate political bettor
A proven profitable cross-market trader with an 82% win rate is buying into a politics market after a sharp weekly move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $323k overall
- They have traded 89 markets across 50 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- They bought at 81¢ in a market up 52% this week, signaling conviction even after the move
$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
87% win-rate macro bettor
A proven cross-market trader with an 87% win rate sold Yes at 75¢, which translates to a buyable No position around 25¢ in a fast-rising Peru election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 193 settled bets
- They trade across 34 events and 72 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They sold Yes at 75¢, which means the copyable side is No around 25¢ while the market has recently surged
$1,053 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election bettor
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader with 193 resolved bets bought into a fast-rising Peru election market, making this worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up $272k across 193 resolved markets
- They trade across 34 events and 72 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 62¢ in a market up 32 points in a day, showing willingness to pay up for this thesis
$1,239 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate political bettor
An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought into a fast-rising Peru election market at 55¢, below the current 61¢ price.
- This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up $272k overall.
- They trade across 71 markets in 33 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ and the market is already at 61¢ after a 34-point move in the last day.
$1,495 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 49490741, $42,588
- 0x1200...aaf4 — Outcome 49490741, $18,294
- 0x784f...5df9 — Outcome 49490741, $3,175 (86% win rate)
- 0x3dfe...5181 — Outcome 49490741, $1,817
- 0x1761...9504 — Outcome 49490741, $1,429
- 0xd2d1...bba8 — Outcome 49490741, $1,292
- 0xa271...2727 — Outcome 49490741, $1,012
- 0x63eb...d3a6 — Outcome 49490741, $872
- 0x47ab...95df — Outcome 49490741, $411 (74% win rate)
- 0x6291...cc47 — Outcome 49490741, $404
Related Theses
Fujimori loses Peru election
Covers 7 related markets
Cepeda loses Colombian presidency
Covers 16 related markets
Iran peace deal by late May
Covers 3 related markets
