Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
10 signals across 1 market · $102,878 tracked · resolves Sep 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz ship traffic returns to “normal” levels by August 31, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch data. Traders are betting on whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches at least 60, with recent smart money activity showing a 92% winner buying No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable traders turning bearish
Three highly experienced, profitable traders coordinated to sell Yes while holding large Yes positions, creating a meaningful bearish signal for this binary market.
$13,799Score: 10.0 - Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$2,175Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A proven bettor is adding $10.5K to No within a six-wallet funded cluster, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market's high liquidity.
$10,546Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 6.8 - Five-wallet coordinated Yes rotation
Five wallets collectively sold $33,910 of No at 84–86¢, creating a notable coordinated Yes position at just 14–16¢ despite the market's deep liquidity.
$33,910Score: 6.0 - Sharp bettor doubles down on No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge is adding $11.1K to No through both a direct purchase and a converted Yes sale.
$11,129Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.0 - Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
$10,235Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.9 - Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
$12,000Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - 92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
$3,783Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 1.0 - 92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
$2,300Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 0.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x79d980…baec$22,235 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$11,129 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0x353852…2c89$10,546 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$6,083 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$5,175 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 94% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect the market’s current implied probability that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the deadline.
What does the Strait of Hormuz traffic prediction market measure?
It measures whether IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 for any date before August 31, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,783 in smart money activity, including a recent signal where a 92% winner bought No, suggesting skepticism that traffic will normalize by the deadline.
When does this Strait of Hormuz market resolve?
The market can resolve early if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day average at or above 60. Otherwise, it resolves after the August 31, 2026 deadline.