Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $102,878.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran, Oil, Politics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Five-wallet coordinated Yes rotation
Five wallets collectively sold $33,910 of No at 84–86¢, creating a notable coordinated Yes position at just 14–16¢ despite the market's deep liquidity.
- Five wallets collectively rotated $33,910 out of No, equivalent to buying Yes around 14–16¢.
- The market still prices Yes at only 16%, so the coordinated flow represents a concentrated contrarian position.
- One participant has won 92% of 388 resolved trades, although the broader cluster includes mixed track records.
$33,910 on Yes
Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A proven bettor is adding $10.5K to No within a six-wallet funded cluster, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,546 to No, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This bettor has won 86% of 181 resolved trades and is up $6,342 lifetime.
- The wallet is adding to an existing No position after previously closing another No position profitably.
$10,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 255 resolved trades and earned $180,625 in profit.
- They added $3,000 to an existing No position while 19 linked wallets have bet the same way.
- No is available near 88¢, implying the trader assigns roughly 88% probability that traffic will not return to normal by August 31.
$2,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 255 resolved trades and earned $180,625 in profit.
- They added $3,000 to an existing No position while 19 linked wallets have bet the same way.
- No is available near 88¢, implying the trader assigns roughly 88% probability that traffic will not return to normal by August 31.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable traders turning bearish
Three highly experienced, profitable traders coordinated to sell Yes while holding large Yes positions, creating a meaningful bearish signal for this binary market.
- Three traders sold $13,799 of Yes, equivalent to buying No around 87¢–88¢.
- The wallets have 147–985 resolved bets each and combined lifetime profits of roughly $893,000.
- Two traders are reducing large open Yes positions bought at 13¢–17¢, suggesting continued bearish positioning rather than a fresh speculative entry.
$13,799 on No
Sharp bettor doubles down on No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge is adding $11.1K to No through both a direct purchase and a converted Yes sale.
- This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and earned $102,511 in profit.
- They committed $11,129 to No at 85¢, including adding to an existing No position.
- The trader has positioned across 29 events and 46 markets, suggesting a seasoned directional thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$11,129 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
- They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
- Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.
$12,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
- They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
- Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.
$10,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.
$2,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.
$3,783 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 10542637, $1,167,197 (87% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 10542637, $191,965 (65% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 10542637, $100,000 (80% win rate)
- 0xc5ea...83f5 — Outcome 10542637, $87,190 (45% win rate)
- 0x26a6...333b — Outcome 10542637, $57,148 (33% win rate)
- 0x30c1...9f91 — Outcome 10542637, $50,000 (48% win rate)
- 0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 10542637, $48,892 (74% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 10542637, $48,038 (50% win rate)
- 0x8e77...c4f3 — Outcome 90869494, $30,000
- 0x7b1f...1ea7 — Outcome 90869494, $25,000 (100% win rate)
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