Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
2 signals across 1 market · $8,119 tracked · resolves Oct 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to at least 60 average daily transit calls by October 31, 2026. The event currently has one outcome market—Yes or No—measured using IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals; PolySpotter has recorded sharp smart-money scaling into No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial sharp scaling into No
A proven 82% winner with a substantial edge is adding to an existing No position in a thin, long-dated market.
$1,220Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.7 - Three-wallet No accumulation
Three wallets are adding roughly $6,900 to No, creating meaningful one-sided flow in a moderately active market despite limited evidence of exceptional trader skill.
$6,900Score: 4.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6af72a…5a6f$1,220 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Strait of Hormuz traffic prediction-market odds?
The live Yes and No prices on Polymarket represent the market’s implied probabilities that traffic reaches the specified threshold by October 31, 2026. Prices can change as traders update their views.
What does this Strait of Hormuz market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of at least 60 Strait of Hormuz transit calls for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves No.
What is smart money doing in this prediction market?
PolySpotter has detected serial sharp scaling into the No outcome, with $1,220 in tracked smart-money activity across the event and one smart-money signal.
Which ships count toward the traffic total?
The measurement includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF Portwatch. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch do not count.
When will the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market resolves as soon as the qualifying IMF Portwatch data is published, or otherwise by the event deadline of October 31, 2026.