US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
61 signals across 5 markets · $1,717,545 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the United States and Iran will mutually sign or adopt a qualifying written final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around the diplomatic talks that followed the June 14, 2026 agreement, with PolySpotter monitoring smart-money activity including a signal from a million-profit serial bettor.
Markets (5)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?21 signals · $884,971 tracked
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?13 signals · $379,853 tracked
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?12 signals · $314,805 tracked
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?14 signals · $133,616 tracked
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?1 signal · $4,300 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Whale-led No cluster
Three wallets, led by a highly profitable whale, put nearly $98k on No amid an extreme volume spike in a politics market where informed positioning is plausible.
$97,676Score: 12.6 - $1M-profit macro whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $151k of No amid a major volume spike and related-event positioning.
$150,805Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 11.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Sharp cross-market political bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and $3.84M profit is buying Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market at 23¢.
$8,941Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - Profitable macro whale buys NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader put $416k on No during a massive volume spike in a geopolitical market.
$416,149Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 8.9 - Profitable serial macro trader
Proven high-volume political trader with $1.0M lifetime profit is buying nearly $60k of No while also positioning across related US-Iran markets.
$59,955Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $7k of Yes at 26¢ on a plausible geopolitical resolution market, with a modest linked-wallet corroboration signal.
$7,005Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 8.0 - 90% cross-market winner
Sharp 90% win-rate cross-market trader bought $5.1k of No on the US-Iran nuclear deal market, extending a proven pattern across 27 events.
$5,103Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 8.0 - 82% win-rate policy sharp
Highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest size.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - 82% win-rate policy sharp
Highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest size.
$1,321Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Serial cross-market No bet
Surfaced because a high-volume serial cross-market trader is betting No during an unusually large volume surge on a plausible geopolitical information market, despite weak lifetime P&L.
$11,645Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 7.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$951,183 · 3 markets · 9 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x0c0e27…434e$376,450 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$57,695 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x9efda3…ad00$55,658 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$24,900 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$20,008 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xcaab19…24dd$14,550 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x79d980…baec$10,262 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x122cb9…fbed$9,675 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 60% wins
- 0xf55927…f462$8,614 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing whether a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the U.S. and Iran will be signed or adopted by the deadline. Check the event page for the latest market-implied probability.
What does this US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve on?
The market resolves Yes if the United States and Iran mutually sign or adopt a qualifying written diplomatic instrument by 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. If no qualifying agreement is reached by then, it resolves No.
Is smart money betting on the US-Iran final nuclear deal market?
PolySpotter has tracked $7,453 in smart-money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a million-profit serial bettor. These signals can help show whether experienced Polymarket traders are taking a position.
Why are traders watching this US-Iran prediction market?
The market gives a real-time view of how bettors assess diplomatic progress after the June 2026 written agreement and 60-day negotiation period. Odds may shift as official statements, extensions, draft terms, or breakdowns in talks emerge.
When does the US-Iran final nuclear deal market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying agreement exists by the August 31, 2026 deadline, with the cutoff specified as 11:59 PM ET.