US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
30 signals across 3 markets · $927,762 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the United States and Iran will mutually sign or adopt a qualifying written final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around the diplomatic talks that followed the June 14, 2026 agreement, with PolySpotter monitoring smart-money activity including a signal from a million-profit serial bettor.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial event trader
Sharp cross-market political bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and $3.84M profit is buying Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market at 23¢.
$8,941Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 11.0 - Profitable macro whale buys NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader put $416k on No during a massive volume spike in a geopolitical market.
$416,149Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 8.9 - 82% win-rate policy sharp
Highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest size.
$1,321Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - 82% win-rate policy sharp
Highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a US-Iran nuclear deal market, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest size.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $7k of Yes at 26¢ on a plausible geopolitical resolution market, with a modest linked-wallet corroboration signal.
$7,005Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 8.0 - Serial cross-market No bet
Surfaced because a high-volume serial cross-market trader is betting No during an unusually large volume surge on a plausible geopolitical information market, despite weak lifetime P&L.
$11,645Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 7.9 - Proven cross-market bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a 68% record is buying No during a major volume spike and price move against Yes.
$7,700Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 7.0 - Million-profit serial bettor
Profitable high-volume trader bought $7.5k of No on a thin US-Iran nuclear deal market, over 3x the 24h volume.
$252,870Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 6.9 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader placed a $7.9k No bet amid an 11.8x volume spike on a geopolitically significant market.
$1,200Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader placed a $7.9k No bet amid an 11.8x volume spike on a geopolitically significant market.
$1,757Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$725,081 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$57,695 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x9efda3…ad00$55,658 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$24,900 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$14,807 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$7,700 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x40a67c…133c$7,600 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$7,005 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0x79d980…baec$5,159 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xcaab19…24dd$5,100 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 77% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing whether a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the U.S. and Iran will be signed or adopted by the deadline. Check the event page for the latest market-implied probability.
What does this US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve on?
The market resolves Yes if the United States and Iran mutually sign or adopt a qualifying written diplomatic instrument by 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. If no qualifying agreement is reached by then, it resolves No.
Is smart money betting on the US-Iran final nuclear deal market?
PolySpotter has tracked $7,453 in smart-money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a million-profit serial bettor. These signals can help show whether experienced Polymarket traders are taking a position.
Why are traders watching this US-Iran prediction market?
The market gives a real-time view of how bettors assess diplomatic progress after the June 2026 written agreement and 60-day negotiation period. Odds may shift as official statements, extensions, draft terms, or breakdowns in talks emerge.
When does the US-Iran final nuclear deal market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying agreement exists by the August 31, 2026 deadline, with the cutoff specified as 11:59 PM ET.