US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
5 signals across 3 markets · $7,955 tracked · resolves Oct 1, 2026
Track the Polymarket prediction market on whether the United States and Iran will announce a qualifying diplomatic agreement covering traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by August 15. PolySpotter is monitoring the market, with a recent alert showing a 94% winner scaling into No.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster
A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.
$1,283Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - 94% winner scaling into No
A highly successful bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $2,107 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$2,107Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - 94% winner in 19-wallet cluster
A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.
$1,700Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced serial trader with 348 resolved bets, a 76% win rate, and $699,676 profit is buying No at 72¢.
$1,077Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster
A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.
$1,788Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$6,878 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$1,077 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran Hormuz agreement odds?
The live Yes and No probabilities are shown on the Polymarket market page and may change as traders update their positions. This event currently contains one market, covering an agreement announced by August 15.
What is the Polymarket market predicting?
It predicts whether the United States and Iran will announce an official agreement, treaty, deal, or similar diplomatic instrument establishing commitments or policies related to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the specified deadline.
What is smart money doing on the Hormuz agreement market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,107 in smart money across the event and one signal. Its recent alert reported that a trader with a 94% winning rate was scaling into No.
When does the US-Iran Hormuz agreement market resolve?
The child market covers an agreement announced by August 15. The event metadata lists August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET as the overall resolution deadline; consult Polymarket for the definitive settlement rules.