Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,148.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced serial trader with 348 resolved bets, a 76% win rate, and $699,676 profit is buying No at 72¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of 348 resolved trades and is up $699,676 lifetime.
- The trader has positioned across 222 markets and 81 events, indicating substantial repeat-market experience rather than a one-off wager.
- Buying No at 72¢ implies confidence that no qualifying US-Iran agreement will be announced by August 31.
$1,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster
A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.
- This bettor wins 94% of 264 resolved trades and is up $183,836 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,283 to an existing No position, while 19 linked wallets have contributed to the same market.
- The No trade was entered at 43¢, with the market now pricing No near 40–42¢ despite the bettor’s continued conviction.
$1,788 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster
A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.
- This bettor wins 94% of 264 resolved trades and is up $183,836 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,283 to an existing No position, while 19 linked wallets have contributed to the same market.
- The No trade was entered at 43¢, with the market now pricing No near 40–42¢ despite the bettor’s continued conviction.
$1,283 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 91570590, $31,251 (28% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 91570590, $11,581 (80% win rate)
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 91570590, $3,061 (71% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 91570590, $2,017 (69% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 91570590, $1,433 (67% win rate)
- 0xb100...6461 — Outcome 91570590, $1,375 (62% win rate)
- 0x6c92...9627 — Outcome 91570590, $958
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 91570590, $923
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 91570590, $859
- 0xeb77...4e6b — Outcome 91570590, $747 (44% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Iranian blockade will persist through September
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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World Cup favorites prevail
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