Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,148.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced serial trader with 348 resolved bets, a 76% win rate, and $699,676 profit is buying No at 72¢.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 348 resolved trades and is up $699,676 lifetime.
  • The trader has positioned across 222 markets and 81 events, indicating substantial repeat-market experience rather than a one-off wager.
  • Buying No at 72¢ implies confidence that no qualifying US-Iran agreement will be announced by August 31.

$1,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster

A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 264 resolved trades and is up $183,836 lifetime.
  • They are adding $1,283 to an existing No position, while 19 linked wallets have contributed to the same market.
  • The No trade was entered at 43¢, with the market now pricing No near 40–42¢ despite the bettor’s continued conviction.

$1,788 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Sharp bettor adds to 19-wallet No cluster

A highly successful bettor is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated directional signal.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 264 resolved trades and is up $183,836 lifetime.
  • They are adding $1,283 to an existing No position, while 19 linked wallets have contributed to the same market.
  • The No trade was entered at 43¢, with the market now pricing No near 40–42¢ despite the bettor’s continued conviction.

$1,283 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 91570590, $31,251 (28% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 91570590, $11,581 (80% win rate)
  3. 0x5b63...11a4 Outcome 91570590, $3,061 (71% win rate)
  4. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 91570590, $2,017 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xcca9...4c9f Outcome 91570590, $1,433 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xb100...6461 Outcome 91570590, $1,375 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x6c92...9627 Outcome 91570590, $958
  8. 0x215a...254c Outcome 91570590, $923
  9. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 91570590, $859
  10. 0xeb77...4e6b Outcome 91570590, $747 (44% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iranian blockade will persist through September

Covers 8 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

ResolvedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?$4,148 tracked3 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
96¢
89¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

43d ago

$1,077 on No at 72¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

44d ago

$1,788 on No at 43¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

45d ago

$1,283 on No at 43¢

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Iranian blockade will persist through September
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 8 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…