Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,107.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

94% winner scaling into No

A highly successful bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $2,107 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 263 resolved trades and earned $183,554 in profit.
  • They are adding $2,107 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to about $5,605.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are associated with the same market activity, reinforcing the directional conviction.

$2,107 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 75799333, $34,973 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 75799333, $4,003 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 75799333, $2,873
  4. 0xd426...334a Outcome 75799333, $2,741 (50% win rate)
  5. 0xcca9...4c9f Outcome 75799333, $1,804 (67% win rate)
  6. 0x215a...254c Outcome 75799333, $1,445
  7. 0xa0bc...d428 Outcome 75799333, $1,300 (55% win rate)
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 75799333, $1,192
  9. 0x6330...6841 Outcome 75799333, $1,043
  10. 0xa8c6...44e8 Outcome 75799333, $1,032 (67% win rate)

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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

ResolvedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?$2,107 tracked1 signalIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
89¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

45d ago

$2,107 on No at 60¢

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