US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
2 signals across 1 market · $5,649 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the U.S. and Iran reach an official ceasefire before crude oil hits $120. Traders are pricing both sides of the geopolitical-energy outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $5,649 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including action from a 72% win-rate macro bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits ↑ $120?
A proven cross-market bettor with a 93% win rate sold Yes at 38¢, effectively backing No in a moderately thin geopolitics market.
$3,798Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.0 - 72% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 72% win rate bought No at 88¢ in a geopolitics market after a sharp weekly move lower in Yes odds.
$1,851Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xb03b82…6ca1$3,798 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$1,851 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire before oil hits $120?
The live Polymarket odds reflect whether traders think an official U.S.-Iran ceasefire will be announced before crude oil reaches $120. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money signals across the related event markets.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $5,649 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from a 72% win-rate macro bettor. That activity can help show whether experienced geopolitical and macro traders are leaning toward ceasefire-first or oil-$120-first outcomes.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
It resolves “Yes” if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement before crude oil hits $120. It resolves “No” if crude oil reaches $120 before such an official ceasefire agreement.
Why are oil prices important to this prediction market?
Oil is the trigger on the other side of the market. Traders are effectively weighing whether diplomacy and de-escalation happen before a major crude price spike to $120.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire before $120 oil market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2026, unless the relevant ceasefire or oil-price condition settles the market earlier under Polymarket’s rules.