What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
2 signals across 2 markets · $6,152 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on what could be included in a possible US-Iran deal in 2026. The active market focuses on whether the deal will include a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting at least one year, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity around that outcome.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 70% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought a large Yes position in a thin US-Iran nuclear deal market, moving in at 59¢ before odds rose to 65¢.
$2,652Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 5.0 - Profitable cross-market thesis
Experienced profitable wallet is building a $20k cross-market Iran-deal thesis and added a $3.5k No bet that was over half the market’s 24h volume.
$3,500Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x60a92c…5a71$3,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0x1ee9a5…197f$2,652 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran deal in 2026?
This event hub tracks the market pricing for whether a 2026 US-Iran deal includes a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting one year or longer. Odds can move as diplomatic headlines, nuclear policy signals, and trader positioning change.
What outcome is being traded in this US-Iran deal market?
The child market asks whether any uranium enrichment percentage cap of at least one year will be included in a US-Iran deal during 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,652 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a trader labeled as a 70% serial cross-market winner.
When does this US-Iran deal prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, based on whether the market’s criteria are met for a qualifying US-Iran deal.