What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
17 signals across 5 markets · $93,115 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This event tracks prediction-market odds on what could be included in a possible US-Iran deal in 2026. The active market focuses on whether the deal will include a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting at least one year, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity around that outcome.
Markets (5)
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?6 signals · $58,452 tracked
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?3 signals · $13,852 tracked
- Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?3 signals · $11,655 tracked
- Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?4 signals · $5,656 tracked
- Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?1 signal · $3,500 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Five-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Five wallets collectively sold $39,179 of No at 86¢, equivalent to coordinated Yes buying at 14¢, though one wallet may simply be exiting an existing No position.
$39,179Score: 5.5 - Repeat Iran-deal No positioning
The wallet is adding to a substantial No position and has repeatedly placed about $98,000 across six related Iran-deal markets, though its 48% win rate is not a strong track record.
$8,700Wallet win rate: 48%Score: 5.0 - Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate added to an existing No position in an exceptionally thin market, though the trade is not backed by a clearly superior price-adjusted record.
$1,302Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.0 - 70% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought a large Yes position in a thin US-Iran nuclear deal market, moving in at 59¢ before odds rose to 65¢.
$2,652Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial trader buying Yes
A highly experienced bettor with 378 resolved trades and $760,843 in profit sold No in a low-volume market, equivalent to buying Yes at about 14¢.
$6,357Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position in a thin, wide-spread market, though the bet is modest relative to the trader’s overall activity.
$2,933Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 5.0 - Proven cross-market bettor backs No
A highly profitable bettor with 374 resolved positions and a strong cross-market track record bought No in a quiet market, accounting for 70% of its 24-hour volume.
$1,151Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.9 - Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced and profitable serial trader made a large concentrated No bet in a relatively thin market, supported by a strong long-term record.
$1,232Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Sharp bettor concentrates on No
A proven high-volume bettor with a 76% win rate made a concentrated No bet that accounted for nearly all recent market activity.
$1,335Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial trader backs No
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader with a 76% win rate is adding $1,760 to No while also positioning across three markets in the same US-Iran event.
$1,760Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x60a92c…5a71$19,698 · 3 markets · 3 alerts · 48% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$16,351 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x1ee9a5…197f$8,355 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$8,230 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$1,302 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran deal in 2026?
This event hub tracks the market pricing for whether a 2026 US-Iran deal includes a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting one year or longer. Odds can move as diplomatic headlines, nuclear policy signals, and trader positioning change.
What outcome is being traded in this US-Iran deal market?
The child market asks whether any uranium enrichment percentage cap of at least one year will be included in a US-Iran deal during 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,652 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a trader labeled as a 70% serial cross-market winner.
When does this US-Iran deal prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, based on whether the market’s criteria are met for a qualifying US-Iran deal.