What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
6 signals across 4 markets · $18,991 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on what could be included in a possible US-Iran deal in 2026. The active market focuses on whether the deal will include a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting at least one year, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity around that outcome.
Markets (4)
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?1 signal · $7,498 tracked
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?2 signals · $5,152 tracked
- Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?1 signal · $3,500 tracked
- Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?2 signals · $2,840 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate added to an existing No position in an exceptionally thin market, though the trade is not backed by a clearly superior price-adjusted record.
$1,302Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.0 - 70% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought a large Yes position in a thin US-Iran nuclear deal market, moving in at 59¢ before odds rose to 65¢.
$2,652Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 5.0 - Serial cross-market No bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with a long positive record is building a related No thesis across multiple US-Iran deal markets, with this entry already moving from 65¢ to 75¢.
$1,538Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.3 - 70% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought a large Yes position in a thin US-Iran nuclear deal market, moving in at 59¢ before odds rose to 65¢.
$2,500Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.3 - Profitable cross-market thesis
Experienced profitable wallet is building a $20k cross-market Iran-deal thesis and added a $3.5k No bet that was over half the market’s 24h volume.
$3,500Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 4.0 - Whale scaling into No
A whale added $7,498 to No at 85–88¢ in a thin market, while already holding nearly $12,000 in No exposure.
$7,498Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 3.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x60a92c…5a71$10,998 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 49% wins
- 0x1ee9a5…197f$6,690 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$1,302 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran deal in 2026?
This event hub tracks the market pricing for whether a 2026 US-Iran deal includes a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting one year or longer. Odds can move as diplomatic headlines, nuclear policy signals, and trader positioning change.
What outcome is being traded in this US-Iran deal market?
The child market asks whether any uranium enrichment percentage cap of at least one year will be included in a US-Iran deal during 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,652 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a trader labeled as a 70% serial cross-market winner.
When does this US-Iran deal prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, based on whether the market’s criteria are met for a qualifying US-Iran deal.