Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
3 signals across 1 market · $14,425 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks which month Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, based on IMF Portwatch’s 7-day average of daily transit calls reaching at least 60. The event includes a market on whether traffic will fail to return to normal in 2026; PolySpotter has also recorded a profitable serial trader buying No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a concentrated $6,094 No bet in a relatively thin geopolitical market, though the historical win rate is not exceptional relative to entry prices.
$6,094Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.1 - Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly active, profitable serial trader made a fresh $7,212 No position that represented over half of the market’s 24-hour volume, despite only moderate evidence of pricing edge.
$7,213Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.1 - Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a concentrated $6,094 No bet in a relatively thin geopolitical market, though the historical win rate is not exceptional relative to entry prices.
$1,118Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6139c4…6b7a$14,425 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 71% wins
FAQs
What are the Strait of Hormuz traffic prediction-market odds?
The event shows Polymarket trading probabilities for the month when Strait of Hormuz traffic reaches the defined normal level, along with the outcome that traffic does not return to normal in 2026. Check the live event page for current prices and odds.
How is a return to normal traffic determined?
The market uses IMF Portwatch data. A qualifying month is the calendar month containing the first published data point where the Strait’s daily 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches or exceeds 60.
What is smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $6,094 in smart money across the event and one smart money signal. The recorded alert headline says a profitable serial trader bought No on the outcome that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal in 2026.
When does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, using the qualifying IMF Portwatch publication and the market’s stated resolution rules.
Which ships count toward the traffic total?
The calculation includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF Portwatch. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded.