Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
16 signals across 5 markets · $48,328 tracked · resolves Aug 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether a listed U.S. official signs a written agreement involving both the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026. The current child market focuses on JD Vance, with PolySpotter tracking $2,809 in smart money activity and a recent 92% winner buying breakout signal.
Markets (5)
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?7 signals · $19,964 tracked
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?4 signals · $12,470 tracked
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?3 signals · $10,072 tracked
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?1 signal · $3,013 tracked
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?1 signal · $2,809 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 82% winner buying NO
A highly profitable 82% lifetime winner is effectively buying No at 10¢ in a thin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
$1,924Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 10.0 - Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes amid a massive volume spike, sharp price move, and cross-market positioning on related contracts.
$6,701Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.7 - 82% cross-market sharp
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.
$1,155Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0 - Sharp wallet buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.
$3,043Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 6.0 - 82% cross-market sharp
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.
$2,216Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - Sharp wallet buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.
$4,833Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 6.0 - 79% winner buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win record is buying No on a politically meaningful Iran-deal market while also positioning across related markets.
$1,581Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $732k lifetime profit bought Yes on a niche political market before a sharp move from 5–10¢ to 12¢.
$3,013Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 5.5 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes after a dramatic repricing in a geopolitical market, with the position already moving from 10¢ to 14¢.
$5,256Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 4.0 - Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes cheaply before a major move higher in a thin U.S.-Iran deal market.
$3,013Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x74471a…a16d$14,837 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 52% wins
- 0x2b670a…b814$13,827 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x3b4484…264e$11,559 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$5,295 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x0cb16f…dea6$2,809 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
FAQs
What are the U.S. x Iran deal signer odds on Polymarket?
This event shows prediction-market odds for whether the listed individual, currently JD Vance, signs a qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
What is smart money doing in this U.S. x Iran deal market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,809 in smart money across this event, including a recent alert described as a 92% winner buying breakout, suggesting notable activity from a historically successful trader.
What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?
The listed individual must sign a written agreement in an official capacity, and both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must be parties to that agreement by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Does the agreement have to be signed directly by both the U.S. and Iran?
No. The rules say both countries must be parties to the agreement, but representatives of either or both countries do not necessarily have to sign it directly, as long as the listed individual signs in an official capacity.
When does the U.S. x Iran deal market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve after the deadline of July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the listed resolution time around August 1, 2026 UTC.