Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether JD Vance will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. To resolve “Yes,” Vance must sign the agreement in an official capacity, and both countries must be parties to it. PolySpotter is tracking $2,809 in smart money activity on this market, including 1 recent smart money signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,809.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

92% winner buying breakout

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes as the market broke sharply higher.

  • This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 82¢ while the market is up 17.5 points on the day.
  • The move pushed Yes far above its prior tracked range, suggesting strong momentum behind the trade.

$2,809 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x92a6...8b84 Yes, $10,611 (98% win rate)
  2. 0x0b57...5fbc No, $7,863
  3. 0x696a...e23a Yes, $5,044 (88% win rate)
  4. 0x8c66...44f3 No, $4,583 (82% win rate)
  5. 0x0cb1...dea6 Yes, $4,351 (92% win rate)
  6. 0x0d05...6a81 No, $4,140 (13% win rate)
  7. 0xa7d3...33bc No, $3,994
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $3,835 (82% win rate)
  9. 0xcbfa...1f40 Yes, $3,546 (83% win rate)
  10. 0xe154...0b7f No, $2,805 (10% win rate)

Related Theses

Predict.fun tops $400M

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal lands late June

Covers 4 related markets

Iran agreement comes by June 16

Covers 2 related markets

Trump confronts Xi publicly

Covers 2 related markets

Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

46dWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$2,809 tracked1 signalTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics
Yes
99¢
No
1¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
69¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

2h ago

$2,809 on Yes at 82¢

82¢99¢17¢

Related Theses