Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
27 signals across 1 market · $731,896 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will collapse, be overthrown, or otherwise cease to govern by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter follows the market odds alongside $731,896 in tracked smart money activity, including signals from regime-fall wallet clusters, geopolitical bettors, and high win-rate macro traders.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 84% win rate made a $50k buy on No, and the trade is backed by a 5-wallet linked cluster plus an extreme volume spike.
$50,323Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 14.1 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A 92% win-rate serial cross-market bettor from a 5-wallet funded cluster put $17.8k into No on a major geopolitical market, suggesting disciplined high-confidence positioning rather than routine flow.
$17,800Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 11.3 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader from a known 4-wallet funded cluster bought No in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth tracking despite the market’s deep liquidity.
$11,282Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.6 - 4-wallet regime-fall cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes around 10¢, including two large profitable cross-market traders with strong long-run win rates, making this coordinated low-probability bet worth watching despite the market’s deep liquidity.
$14,899Score: 10.5 - Sharp cluster selling panic
Three wallets dumped nearly $202k into the same anti-collapse view within minutes, led by a wallet with an 88% win rate and $920k profit, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the already-high 90¢ price.
$202,000Score: 7.7 - Profitable new whale
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is already profitable, and this latest $4.8k buy backs the heavy favorite in a major geopolitics market at 87¢.
$4,810Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 6.9 - Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 79% hit rate and $301k realized P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitical market at 11¢.
$1,238Wallet win rate: 44%Score: 6.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A proven sharp wallet with an 81% win rate and strong edge is taking the No side by selling Yes at 21¢ in a major geopolitics market.
$4,410Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate bought No at 75¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal.
$3,750Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.1M P&L just made a fresh $51.5k directional bet equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢.
$51,500Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x791976…72b2$128,230 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0x7d2299…f0cf$70,400 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x000d25…758e$61,606 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xf2f6af…5817$51,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xf67f72…31cf$33,921 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0x5f176a…519e$31,292 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x136a5f…88ee$25,102 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x15fdd6…cc95$22,984 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xb6c83e…b9e6$17,800 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0xb1a279…372a$14,708 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that the Iranian regime falls by June 30?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied probability that Iran’s current ruling regime falls by the resolution deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money flows so you can see whether experienced wallets are buying or selling the outcome.
What is smart money doing in the Iran regime fall market?
PolySpotter has tracked 27 smart money signals and $731,896 across this event. Recent alerts include a 4-wallet regime-fall cluster, sharp cluster selling panic, and activity from profitable geopolitical and macro bettors.
Who is betting on this Iran prediction market?
The event has attracted politically focused prediction-market traders, including profitable geopolitical cross-market bettors, a profitable new whale, and a 90% win-rate macro bettor flagged by PolySpotter alerts.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime has fallen by June 30, 2026. If there is not broad consensus reporting that the regime has collapsed, been overthrown, or ceased to govern by the deadline, it resolves to “No.”
What would count as the Iranian regime falling?
Resolution requires broad consensus reporting that the core structures of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, or IRGC control under clerical authority—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system.