Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
27 signals across 1 market · $731,896 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 84% win rate made a $50k buy on No, and the trade is backed by a 5-wallet linked cluster plus an extreme volume spike.
$50,323Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 14.1 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A 92% win-rate serial cross-market bettor from a 5-wallet funded cluster put $17.8k into No on a major geopolitical market, suggesting disciplined high-confidence positioning rather than routine flow.
$17,800Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 11.3 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader from a known 4-wallet funded cluster bought No in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth tracking despite the market’s deep liquidity.
$11,282Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.6 - 4-wallet regime-fall cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes around 10¢, including two large profitable cross-market traders with strong long-run win rates, making this coordinated low-probability bet worth watching despite the market’s deep liquidity.
$14,899Score: 10.5 - Sharp cluster selling panic
Three wallets dumped nearly $202k into the same anti-collapse view within minutes, led by a wallet with an 88% win rate and $920k profit, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the already-high 90¢ price.
$202,000Score: 7.7 - Profitable new whale
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is already profitable, and this latest $4.8k buy backs the heavy favorite in a major geopolitics market at 87¢.
$4,810Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 6.9 - Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 79% hit rate and $301k realized P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitical market at 11¢.
$1,238Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 6.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A proven sharp wallet with an 81% win rate and strong edge is taking the No side by selling Yes at 21¢ in a major geopolitics market.
$4,410Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate bought No at 75¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal.
$3,750Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.0 - Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.1M P&L just made a fresh $51.5k directional bet equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢.
$51,500Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.0
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