Part of: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
This Polymarket asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to govern by June 30, 2026, based on broad consensus reporting that its core ruling structures have been dissolved, incapacitated, or fundamentally replaced. Traders are pricing the odds of regime change in Iran before that deadline, making this a closely watched geopolitical prediction market. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity in this market, including recent whale and cluster alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
27 smart money signals detected, totaling $731,896.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Middle East, Geopolitics, World, Politics, Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi, Iran Regime
Notable Trades
4-wallet regime-fall cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes around 10¢, including two large profitable cross-market traders with strong long-run win rates, making this coordinated low-probability bet worth watching despite the market’s deep liquidity.
- Four wallets lined up on the same side for nearly $14.9k, with three effectively buying Yes at 10¢ by selling No.
- Two of the wallets have strong records across dozens of events, including 75-78% win rates and more than $115k in profit.
- Entry around 10¢ means they are paying a low price for a high-upside political tail-risk bet.
$14,899 on Yes
Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 79% hit rate and $301k realized P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitical market at 11¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $301k overall
- They have traded 30 markets across 29 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 11¢ in a deep news-driven market, implying they think regime collapse odds are meaningfully higher than the market price
$1,238 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable new whale
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is already profitable, and this latest $4.8k buy backs the heavy favorite in a major geopolitics market at 87¢.
- This wallet is only 9 days old but has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling $61k
- It is already up $1.5k, though the track record is still tiny at 3 wins from 3 resolved bets
- The trade backs No at 87¢ in a deep geopolitics market, suggesting steady conviction rather than a random punt
$4,810 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
96% winner buys No
A bettor with a 96% win rate made a very large $128k buy on No in a major geopolitical market, and the trade alone was 84% of the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades with 25 wins in 26 markets
- They put $128k on No, equal to 84% of this market's 24-hour volume
- Buying at 87¢ shows a high-confidence view that regime change by June is unlikely
$128,230 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
85% win-rate bettor
A proven high-win-rate bettor sold No on this geopolitics market, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢ and is worth surfacing because of the wallet’s unusually strong long-term edge.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades across 993 resolved markets and is up $14.4k
- Their trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 14¢, a low price for a long-shot thesis they appear to like
- The signal comes from track record rather than size, since this was only a $1k trade in a very liquid market
$1,032 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
90% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with activity across 112 events just bought No in a major geopolitics market, making this a track-record-driven signal worth watching despite only one alert source.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 119 markets and has traded $3.2M across 112 events
- They just bought No at 87¢ in a deep geopolitics market, backing the status quo rather than chasing a long-shot regime collapse
- Their average winning entry is 91¢, so this fits a pattern of repeatedly pressing high-probability favorites
$6,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.1M P&L just made a fresh $51.5k directional bet equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢.
- This bettor wins 74% of 990 resolved markets and is up $3.1M lifetime
- The trade is a $51.5k bet equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, showing real conviction on a low-probability outcome
- This wallet has traded 106 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge
$51,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A 92% win-rate serial cross-market bettor from a 5-wallet funded cluster put $17.8k into No on a major geopolitical market, suggesting disciplined high-confidence positioning rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and has bet across 58 related markets for nearly $1.9M total
- Five wallets linked to the same funder have been flagged before, which makes this look like coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 89¢ in a deep news-driven market, backing the regime to survive despite recent Yes interest
$17,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A proven sharp bettor with a 93% win rate put $70.4k into No on a major geopolitics market, making this worth surfacing despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 330 bets and has put over $5.1M to work across 99 markets
- They bought No at 88¢ with a $70.4k order, backing the high-probability side in a major geopolitics market
- The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate opinion from a proven trader rather than a random thin-market punt
$70,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
A serial cross-market trader with an extraordinary 94% win rate bought nearly $11k of No in a major geopolitical market at 87¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite only one detection flag.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades across 1,310 markets and is up about $33.9k
- They placed a nearly $11k bet on No at 87¢ in a major geopolitical market with deep liquidity
- Buying at 87¢ means they see the regime surviving through June as more likely than the current 88% market implies
$10,942 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0xa7d1...b824 — Yes, $1,737,710 (100% win rate)
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,251,824 (26% win rate)
- 0x11e5...ee4d — Yes, $870,649 (71% win rate)
- 0xbad4...acd7 — Yes, $817,997
- 0xfd22...ad91 — No, $800,000 (53% win rate)
- 0xa253...c48f — Yes, $613,367
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $533,695 (70% win rate)
- 0x9ba9...3ce9 — No, $513,863
- 0xbc96...b2a7 — Yes, $500,239
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $470,574 (43% win rate)
