Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
2 signals across 1 market · $2,252 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will fall, collapse, or be replaced by May 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around a high-stakes geopolitical question, with PolySpotter highlighting smart money activity including a 91% win-rate sharp buyer and longshot Yes buying.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 91% win-rate sharp buyer
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 91% win rate is taking a fresh position on a geopolitical longshot at 7¢, which is notable despite the modest size.
$1,252Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - Sharp bettor buys longshot Yes
A profitable sharp wallet with a strong edge profile is taking a fresh low-priced Yes position, making this small but notable signal worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8b7101…8044$1,252 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x9c274a…d050$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that the Iranian regime falls by May 31?
The live odds move as traders buy and sell the Yes and No outcomes. PolySpotter tracks those price changes alongside smart money signals so you can see whether informed wallets are leaning toward a regime collapse or against it.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran regime market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show two smart money signals totaling about $2,252 tracked across the event, including a 91% win-rate sharp buyer and a sharp bettor buying the longshot Yes side.
What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if broad reporting shows that the Islamic Republic’s core ruling structures have been overthrown, collapsed, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system by the deadline.
When does the Iranian regime fall market resolve?
The market is tied to the May 31, 2026 deadline. If the required regime-change conditions are not met by then, it is expected to resolve No.
Is this a market on Khamenei specifically or the Iranian regime as a whole?
This event is about the current Iranian regime as a whole, not just one leader. It focuses on whether the Islamic Republic’s governing system and core institutions cease to govern or are fundamentally replaced.