Part of: Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether any Canadian provincial government will officially schedule a referendum on leaving Canada by December 31, 2026. The current smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter totals $1,300 across 1 signal, including a recent move from a 98% winning bettor flipping to No. The market resolves Yes if a qualifying binding or non-binding secession referendum is scheduled before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,349.
Categories: Canada, Politics, World, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
98% winner flips to No
Sharp wallet with a 42/43 resolved record is taking a contrarian No position despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 42 of 43 resolved positions and is profitable lifetime.
- They bought No at 35¢ even as Yes has climbed 19 points this week.
- The wallet previously held Yes but is now positioned the other way, suggesting a changed view.
$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Sharp funded-cluster bettor
A proven profitable wallet from a 10-wallet funded cluster is selling Yes, which translates into a copyable buy on No at 27¢ in a reasonably liquid political market.
- This bettor wins 74% of their resolved trades and is up $14.4k across 302 bets
- They are part of a 10-wallet group funded by the same source, a coordinated pattern that has appeared repeatedly
- Selling Yes at 73¢ is equivalent to buying No at 27¢, a cheap entry against a long-dated political outcome
$2,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x7e31...454d — Yes, $31,661 (72% win rate)
- 0x2b76...edef — Yes, $30,446
- 0x9195...72a4 — No, $11,230 (41% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — No, $10,694 (63% win rate)
- 0x5c7f...312c — Yes, $8,587
- 0x5d6e...f73d — No, $7,391
- 0x7afe...9449 — No, $5,417 (98% win rate)
- 0xcfc4...c423 — Yes, $5,368
- 0x0d15...c454 — No, $5,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x8365...e9a6 — No, $5,000
