Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

This Polymarket asks whether any Canadian province will officially schedule a referendum on leaving Canada by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if a provincial government sets a vote on secession, independence, or a framework for independence, whether binding or non-binding; otherwise it resolves No. Traders are using it to price the odds of a province moving toward a formal break from Canada before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,049.

Categories: Canada, Politics, World, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp funded-cluster bettor

A proven profitable wallet from a 10-wallet funded cluster is selling Yes, which translates into a copyable buy on No at 27¢ in a reasonably liquid political market.

  • This bettor wins 74% of their resolved trades and is up $14.4k across 302 bets
  • They are part of a 10-wallet group funded by the same source, a coordinated pattern that has appeared repeatedly
  • Selling Yes at 73¢ is equivalent to buying No at 27¢, a cheap entry against a long-dated political outcome

$2,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7e31...454d — Yes, $20,201 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x3af2...5212 — Yes, $19,208
  3. 0x2b76...edef — Yes, $16,846
  4. 0x34ab...3eb5 — No, $12,172 (35% win rate)
  5. 0x9195...72a4 — No, $10,670
  6. 0xbe40...3bf6 — Yes, $10,223
  7. 0x5c7f...312c — Yes, $8,587
  8. 0xe0db...f44e — No, $8,020 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x5d6e...f73d — No, $7,391
  10. 0x5b72...bedd — No, $5,166

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

263d$2,049 tracked1 signalCanadaPoliticsWorldGeopolitics
Yes
65¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
80¢
72¢
64¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

6h ago

$2,049 on No at 27¢

27¢→35¢↑8¢