Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,144.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Peru Election, Peru, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable 77% win-rate bettor

Sharp-wallet override: the bettor has a 77% resolved win rate and $246k lifetime profit, making even a modest Yes buy worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $246k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 30¢, implying a roughly 3.3x payout if Sánchez wins by 0–4%.
  • This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting repeated large-conviction activity.

$1,345 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable new wallet on No

A profitable new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is buying No in a quiet Peru election-margin market at over 2.5x the past-day volume.

  • This new bettor is already up $3.1K and has had 9 large-bet alerts totaling $22.3K.
  • The $1.8K No buy was 267% of the market’s past-day volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • They are fading a narrow 0–4% Sánchez win even as Yes has risen 13.5% over the past week.

$1,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 11259956, $79,787
  2. 0x23d8...0288 Outcome 11257471, $16,383 (83% win rate)
  3. 0xa7ee...17f6 Outcome 11257471, $10,454
  4. 0xf564...c6c6 Outcome 11257471, $5,036
  5. 0x6d5a...94e2 Outcome 11257471, $4,511
  6. 0x7d95...dd91 Outcome 11257471, $3,478
  7. 0x15d4...6ddd Outcome 11257471, $2,582
  8. 0x3bee...aecc Outcome 11257471, $2,499
  9. 0xbc8f...04ec Outcome 11257471, $2,320
  10. 0x19cc...5842 Outcome 11257471, $2,162

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Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

ResolvedPeru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?$3,144 tracked2 signalsPoliticsElectionsPeru ElectionPerurewards 200, 4.5, 20

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Notable Trades

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

41d ago

$1,345 on Yes at 30¢

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

49d ago

$1,799 on No at 73¢

Related Theses