This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 549 resolved markets and is up nearly $60k Their sale of No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 17¢, a cheap entry if they see the odds as mispriced This is a fresh signal on a real geopolitics market, not just routine action in a meme market

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,545.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitical sharp

A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $200k profit bought No into a fast market move on a geopolitically news-sensitive market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $201k across nearly $19.3M invested.
They bought No at 71¢ in a news-driven geopolitics market after a fast 13.5-point move, suggesting a clear view on the odds.
This wallet also trades heavily across related events — 61 events and 84 markets tracked — which points to repeatable edge, not a one-off bet.

$1,914 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

94% win-rate bettor

A highly accurate bettor with a 94% win rate sold No at 83¢, which translates to buying Yes at 17¢ on a geopolitically meaningful market.

This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 549 resolved markets and is up nearly $60k
Their sale of No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 17¢, a cheap entry if they see the odds as mispriced
This is a fresh signal on a real geopolitics market, not just routine action in a meme market

$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

86% win-rate macro bettor

A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $2M in cross-market volume sold No here, which translates to a sizable buy of Yes at 16¢ in a liquid geopolitical market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 173 markets and is up nearly $80k
They flipped this into a $6.2k Yes bet at 16¢, a cheap price for a geopolitical headline market
This wallet has traded 202 related markets across 150 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge

$6,212 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 150 events is buying No at 71¢ on this geopolitical market, making it a credible copy-trade despite the single-ticket size.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $75k across $1.5M invested
They trade across 150 events and 201 markets, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 71¢, a moderate-conviction entry on a news-driven geopolitical market

$4,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%