US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
13 signals across 3 markets · $43,171 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States officially announces it has escorted, is escorting, or will escort a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are pricing several deadline-based outcomes, including March 31, April 15, and April 30, 2026. PolySpotter has tracked $43,171 in smart money activity across 13 signals, including sharp geopolitical and macro bettors.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 19-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable high-volume trader from a 19-wallet funded cluster bought No with real size in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine flow.
$6,182Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - Profitable geopolitical sharp
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $200k profit bought No into a fast market move on a geopolitically news-sensitive market.
$1,914Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 10.3 - 86% win-rate event trader
A proven 86% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M in event-driven activity sold No at 83¢ here, effectively buying Yes at 17¢ across a related market thesis.
$5,395Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 9.0 - US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 150 events is buying No at 71¢ on this geopolitical market, making it a credible copy-trade despite the single-ticket size.
$4,281Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 9.0 - 86% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $2M in cross-market volume sold No here, which translates to a sizable buy of Yes at 16¢ in a liquid geopolitical market.
$6,212Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader sold Yes at 19¢, which translates to buying No at 81¢, and their long track record across 46 related markets makes this a notable thesis worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,160Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 9.0 - 72% win-rate event trader
A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate has opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes trade, signaling an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,785Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 7.0 - Profitable event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and $145.8k profit is backing No in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis trade worth surfacing.
$1,448Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 7.0 - US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
$1,020Wallet win rate: 45%Score: 6.3 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in a news-driven geopolitics market at 22¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xaf3909…3101$25,090 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 84% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$6,182 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$4,120 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,260 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$1,914 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,448 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x5fdf53…28a2$1,137 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x373244…43ac$1,020 · 1 market · 1 alert · 45% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a U.S. Hormuz escort?
The event includes multiple deadline markets for whether the U.S. escorts a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, April 15, or April 30, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live market pricing and smart money flows across all related outcomes.
What does this prediction market resolve on?
It resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by the relevant deadline. Otherwise, that deadline market resolves to “No.”
Who is betting on the U.S. escorting ships through Hormuz?
PolySpotter has flagged activity from several notable trader types, including a 19-wallet sharp cluster, a profitable geopolitical sharp, an 86% win-rate macro bettor, and high win-rate event traders.
What is the smart money doing in this Hormuz market?
Across the event, PolySpotter has tracked $43,171 in smart money and 13 signals. These alerts help show when sharper wallets are building or adjusting positions around U.S.-Iran tensions, oil risk, and Strait of Hormuz shipping security.
When do these Hormuz escort markets resolve?
The child markets resolve based on their specific deadlines: March 31, April 15, and April 30, 2026. Each market depends on whether an official U.S. announcement confirms an escort by that date.