US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
13 signals across 3 markets · $43,171 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 19-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable high-volume trader from a 19-wallet funded cluster bought No with real size in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine flow.
$6,182Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - Profitable geopolitical sharp
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $200k profit bought No into a fast market move on a geopolitically news-sensitive market.
$1,914Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 10.3 - 86% win-rate event trader
A proven 86% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M in event-driven activity sold No at 83¢ here, effectively buying Yes at 17¢ across a related market thesis.
$5,395Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 150 events is buying No at 71¢ on this geopolitical market, making it a credible copy-trade despite the single-ticket size.
$4,281Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 86% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $2M in cross-market volume sold No here, which translates to a sizable buy of Yes at 16¢ in a liquid geopolitical market.
$6,212Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader sold Yes at 19¢, which translates to buying No at 81¢, and their long track record across 46 related markets makes this a notable thesis worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,160Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 9.0 - 72% win-rate event trader
A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate has opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes trade, signaling an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,785Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - Profitable event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and $145.8k profit is backing No in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis trade worth surfacing.
$1,448Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 7.0 - US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
$1,020Wallet win rate: 45%Score: 6.3 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in a news-driven geopolitics market at 22¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xaf3909…3101$25,090 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$6,182 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$4,120 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,260 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$1,914 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,448 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0x5fdf53…28a2$1,137 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x373244…43ac$1,020 · 1 market · 1 alert · 45% wins