What has to happen for this crude oil prediction market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if the official CME settlement price for the active-month, or front-month, NYMEX crude oil (CL) futures contract is $140.00 or higher on any trading day before the end of June 2026.

Does crude oil need to stay above $140 through June 2026?

No. It only needs to hit a CME official settlement price of at least $140 once during the market window. A single qualifying trading day is enough for a Yes resolution.

Which oil price does this Polymarket use?

This market uses the official CME settlement price for the active-month WTI crude oil (CL) futures contract, not spot oil prices or intraday highs. The active month is the front-month contract under CME's contract roll rules.

When does the market resolve?

The market resolves after the final trading day of June 2026, with the listed resolution date of June 30, 2026. If no qualifying CME settlement at or above $140 occurs by then, the outcome is No.

Why are traders watching this oil market?

A move to $140 would imply a major rally in crude, potentially driven by supply shocks, geopolitical risk, OPEC decisions, or stronger-than-expected demand. Prediction market odds give a live view of how likely traders think that scenario is.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

This Polymarket asks whether the active-month CME WTI crude oil (CL) futures contract will settle at $140 or higher on any trading day before the end of June 2026. The market resolves Yes if the official CME front-month settlement reaches that level at least once between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Traders use this market to price the chances of a major oil spike before mid-2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $43,061.

Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil

Notable Trades

93% winner adds oil thesis

A bettor with a 93% win rate is extending a cross-market thesis in crude oil by buying No at 83¢, a notable sharp-wallet signal even though the edge comes mainly from track record rather than market impact.

This bettor wins 93% of their resolved trades with 26 wins in 28 markets
They are betting across 3 related oil markets, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
They bought No at 83¢ while this market trades around 82¢ No, showing steady conviction more than chase buying

$7,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

92% win-rate oil bettor

A bettor with a 92% win rate is making a sizable cross-market thesis bet on oil staying below extreme levels, which is worth watching despite the moderate composite score.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades, with 24 wins in 26 markets.
They placed a $9.0k bet as part of a 3-market oil thesis totaling $16.1k.
Buying No at 83¢ means they see oil hitting $140 by June as unlikely even after a recent 1-day price jump.

$9,028 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

New wallet buying dip

A 1.5-day-old wallet with multiple early positions and positive P&L just made another four-figure directional bet in an energy market by effectively buying Yes at 24¢ after a sharp pullback.

This 1.5-day-old wallet has already placed 7 positions and is up $486 early, which makes the fresh four-figure bet more notable.
The trade was a sale of No at 76¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 24¢ after the market fell 11.5 points over the past week.
A $1.1k trade is meaningful versus just $4.3k of 24-hour volume, suggesting real conviction rather than routine flow.

$1,105 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 27%

Pro oil trader, 5-market thesis

A historically profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is building a 5-market crude oil thesis, and this fresh buy adds directional conviction at 30¢.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $567k lifetime.
They have put $22.2k across 5 related crude oil markets, which looks like a deliberate event-wide view.
This buy came in at 30¢, suggesting they see the $140 spike as meaningfully more likely than the market does.

$1,717 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Cross-market oil thesis

This looks worth surfacing because a very active, profitable wallet is expressing the same crude-oil thesis across 9 related markets with a meaningful $7.3k position at 27¢ equivalent odds.

This wallet has over 1,000 resolved bets and is up about $72k overall.
They have put $76k across 9 related crude-oil markets, pointing to a broad event thesis rather than a one-off trade.
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 27¢, which implies they see the current 28¢ odds as too low.

$7,317 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

5-wallet oil cluster

Five wallets piled into No for $16.3k during a 28.7x volume spike in a moderately liquid oil market, and several of the wallets have strong profitable track records.

Five wallets all bought No for $16.3k in the same window as volume jumped 28.7x.
Two of the bettors have strong records, including one who wins 85% of 71 resolved bets and another at 80% over 142 bets.
They bought No around 74¢ to 84¢ while the market moved to 80¢, backing the view that $140 oil by June is unlikely.

$16,322 on No