Part of: US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the Panama Canal will come under primary US operational control by the end of 2026. It resolves Yes if the United States assumes control through agreement, military action, or another means, including an official US-Panama announcement before the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $1,130 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,382.
Categories: Politics, Trump, World, Geopolitics, Foreign Policy
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is buying No on a thin geopolitical market, but the edge is more track-record-based than news-driven.
- This bettor has 937 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $37K lifetime.
- They have traded across 32 events and 40 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 89¢ is a high-confidence bet that US control of the canal does not happen by 2027.
$1,130 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
86% winner backing favorite
A high-volume bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $24k lifetime profit is backing No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 86% of 547 resolved bets and is up $24,387 lifetime.
- They are buying No at 90¢, backing the market favorite on a long-dated geopolitical outcome.
- The $1,800 trade is meaningful relative to the market’s $5,068 in 24h volume.
$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
A bettor with an extraordinary 99% win rate made a fresh $4.45k contrarian buy on Yes by selling No at 88¢ in a market with zero 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades with 531 wins and just 7 losses
- They effectively bought Yes at 12¢ by selling No at 88¢, a very contrarian entry versus the current 9¢ market
- The trade was $4.45k in a market with $0 24h volume, so this was a meaningful conviction bet
$4,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
Top Holders
- 0x9507...7b04 — No, $12,664 (89% win rate)
- 0x51de...9e4a — Yes, $11,887 (36% win rate)
- 0xc3c3...eec8 — Yes, $10,352 (99% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — Yes, $10,014 (40% win rate)
- 0x0dde...94c3 — No, $8,451 (86% win rate)
- 0x9438...ad81 — Yes, $4,267 (33% win rate)
- 0xa139...6f00 — Yes, $3,954 (86% win rate)
- 0xda47...941c — No, $3,183
- 0xed10...d2e5 — No, $3,000 (89% win rate)
- 0x7c8c...1bdc — No, $2,700
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