Part of: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,180.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, tanker, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Five-wallet funded cluster backs Yes

A five-wallet funded cluster and a highly profitable bettor are backing Yes, though the trade adds to an existing position and offers limited remaining value at 94%.

Five linked wallets are associated with $3,103 of Yes exposure, signaling coordinated conviction.
This bettor has won 93% of 385 resolved trades and earned $1.74 million lifetime.
The position entered at 88¢ and Yes has since risen to 94%, leaving limited room for a favorable copy entry.

$3,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Funded four-wallet Yes cluster

A strongly coordinated, funded-wallet surge put $11.3K into Yes across four wallets, including a highly profitable bettor, alongside a 48.5x volume spike and a 95-point price jump.

Four wallets sharing a funder bought $11,349 of Yes, with the market moving from roughly 5% to 100%.
One participating bettor wins 93% of 385 resolved trades and has earned $1.74M overall.
The coordinated buying included entries from 78¢ to 90%, but the market is now priced at 100%, leaving little room to copy.

$11,349 on Yes

92% win-rate bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate sold No at 36%, effectively buying Yes amid a major market repricing.

This bettor has won 92% of 71 resolved bets and is up $15,804.
Selling No at 36¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at roughly 64¢, signaling strong conviction that fewer than 50 ships will transit.
The $1,166 trade is meaningful against the market’s $5,720 liquidity and follows a sharp 34-point price move in No.

$1,166 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Serial bettor scaling into No

A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $6,279 to an existing No position, though the historical edge is modest relative to the 85% average winning entry price.

This bettor has won 92% of 60 resolved trades and is up $25,212 overall.
They are adding $6,279 to an existing No position, bringing total investment in No to $17,039.
The trade buys No at 74¢ while the market is priced around 76¢, implying continued confidence that fewer than 50 ships will transit.

$5,284 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Serial bettor scaling into No

A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $6,279 to an existing No position, though the historical edge is modest relative to the 85% average winning entry price.

This bettor has won 92% of 60 resolved trades and is up $25,212 overall.
They are adding $6,279 to an existing No position, bringing total investment in No to $17,039.
The trade buys No at 74¢ while the market is priced around 76¢, implying continued confidence that fewer than 50 ships will transit.

$6,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%