Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market resolves Yes if Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a formal, senior-level in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves No. Current odds are not included in the provided market data; PolySpotter tracks $11,616 in smart money across three signals, all indicating Yes-side activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $35,589.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Four-wallet No accumulation

Four wallets added $23,973 to No at 61¢ in a concentrated burst that exceeded the market's recent trading volume, though their track records are not strongly profitable.

  • Four wallets bought No at 61¢, totaling nearly $24,000 in a short burst.
  • The buys were several times the market's $7,820 in 24-hour volume and added to existing No positions.
  • The wallets' records offer limited confirmation: profits are modest or negative across small samples.

$23,973 on No

Large bettor adding to Yes position

A bettor with an existing $13,900 Yes position added $1,914 in a thin market, creating a notable volume spike despite no proven edge in the limited track record.

  • The bettor already has $13,900 invested in Yes and added another $1,914.
  • The new trade was more than 4.6 times the market’s 24-hour volume, though the price has recently drifted down.
  • Their record is only 9 resolved bets, so it does not yet establish a reliable edge.

$1,914 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Large Yes position being scaled up

The bettor added $5,115 to an already-large Yes position in a thin market, coinciding with a sharp volume spike, though the small track record offers limited evidence of an edge.

  • The bettor added $5,115 to an existing $24,700 Yes position at 33¢.
  • The trades were more than eight times the market’s recent 24-hour volume, alongside a reported volume spike.
  • Their record is 7 wins and 2 losses, but that small sample does not establish a reliable edge.

$5,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Large bettor adding to Yes

The wallet added about $4,600 to an existing Yes position in a very quiet market, creating a notable burst of buying, though its short track record offers limited evidence of an edge.

  • The bettor added about $4,600 to an existing $13,900 Yes position, showing continued conviction.
  • The buying was unusually large against just $411 in 24-hour volume, though the wallet's 9 resolved bets are too few to establish a reliable track record.

$4,587 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $2,319 (45% win rate)
  2. 0xd426...334a — No, $2,069 (51% win rate)
  3. 0xa8c2...b635 — No, $706
  4. 0x21ff...0d71 — No, $481
  5. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $260 (53% win rate)
  6. 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $223
  7. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $182
  8. 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $144 (43% win rate)
  9. 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Yes, $132
  10. 0xf519...906b — Yes, $100 (78% win rate)

Related Theses

Qatar attends Iran talks, Witkoff absent

Covers 2 related markets

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

$35,589 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
44¢
No
56¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
84¢
70¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-29 07:23 UTC

$23,973 on No at 61¢

61¢→56¢↓5¢

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-14 03:08 UTC

$1,914 on Yes at 33¢

33¢→44¢↑11¢

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-14 03:08 UTC

$5,115 on Yes at 33¢

33¢→44¢↑11¢

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-14 03:03 UTC

$4,587 on Yes at 33¢

33¢→44¢↑11¢

Related Theses