Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will own the top-ranked Math AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of April 2026. It resolves based on the highest score in the Text Arena Math leaderboard with style control off, checked on April 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. PolySpotter tracks current market odds, smart money activity, and recent signals for traders following Anthropic's chances.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,939.
Categories: Tech, Math, Big Tech, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, AI
Notable Trades
Serial thesis trader buys Yes
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L made a market-moving buy that was larger than the market’s recent activity, suggesting real conviction despite only a mid-level composite score.
- This wallet has bet nearly $1.0M across 64 related markets and is up $56.5k overall
- The $3.9k buy was bigger than the market’s recent trading volume and landed in a thin book with a 6.8% spread
- Bought Yes at 62¢ after the market jumped 47.5 points in a day, showing they are pressing the move rather than fading it
$3,939 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0xbf93...2fd7 — Yes, $6,342 (60% win rate)
- 0xc6dd...4b9f — No, $5,428 (67% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — No, $5,000 (57% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $4,058
- 0x7d1b...e75c — Yes, $2,731
- 0xb120...f2ff — Yes, $2,059
- 0x0482...6b0a — Yes, $630 (36% win rate)
- 0x7365...64da — Yes, $348 (50% win rate)
- 0xd05c...ea2c — Yes, $334
- 0x1c02...e658 — Yes, $329
