Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $5,113 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including activity from a profitable serial macro bettor. The market resolves “Yes” if Israel makes the qualifying withdrawal announcement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date; otherwise it resolves “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,113.
Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial macro bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record made a large No buy in a relatively thin, wide-spread geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 347 resolved trades and is up $46.6K lifetime.
- The $5.1K No buy was larger than recent market activity and pushed into a thin order book.
- Entry at 33¢ is already slightly ahead of the current 36¢ price.
$5,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x74bf...2a6e — Yes, $34,186 (75% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $15,323 (71% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $11,680 (56% win rate)
- 0x4dce...ea78 — No, $2,373
- 0x9078...26af — No, $2,100
- 0x2e61...19bd — No, $2,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — Yes, $1,205
- 0xeca0...e8f8 — No, $1,000 (51% win rate)
- 0x588c...1bf4 — No, $878
- 0xe7fe...24e5 — No, $648
Related Theses
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