Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce the withdrawal of all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The current Yes/No market odds are not included in the supplied data; PolySpotter shows $29,946 in tracked smart money and recent No-position signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,817.
Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Four-wallet No conviction cluster
Four wallets added nearly $30,000 to No at 79¢ in a thin market, creating a major one-sided volume spike with support from two high-win-rate bettors.
- Four wallets added nearly $30,000 to No at 79¢, more than 13 times the market’s stated liquidity and far above recent activity.
- The trade created a 4,974x historical volume spike in a normally quiet market, signaling unusually concentrated conviction.
- Two participants win 89% and 90% of resolved bets, though their overall profits are modest and all four were already holding No.
$29,946 on No
Serial macro bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader added a $7.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, nearly matching the scan window's 24h volume and aligning with recent No momentum.
- This bettor has traded across 34 events and is up $46k lifetime.
- Their $7.3k No buy was nearly a full day’s volume in the signal window.
- The market has moved toward No over the past week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$1,628 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial macro bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader added a $7.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, nearly matching the scan window's 24h volume and aligning with recent No momentum.
- This bettor has traded across 34 events and is up $46k lifetime.
- Their $7.3k No buy was nearly a full day’s volume in the signal window.
- The market has moved toward No over the past week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$1,487 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
$1,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
$3,462 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Serial macro bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader added a $7.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, nearly matching the scan window's 24h volume and aligning with recent No momentum.
- This bettor has traded across 34 events and is up $46k lifetime.
- Their $7.3k No buy was nearly a full day’s volume in the signal window.
- The market has moved toward No over the past week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$1,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial macro bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader added a $7.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, nearly matching the scan window's 24h volume and aligning with recent No momentum.
- This bettor has traded across 34 events and is up $46k lifetime.
- Their $7.3k No buy was nearly a full day’s volume in the signal window.
- The market has moved toward No over the past week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$2,969 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
$1,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial macro bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record made a large No buy in a relatively thin, wide-spread geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 347 resolved trades and is up $46.6K lifetime.
- The $5.1K No buy was larger than recent market activity and pushed into a thin order book.
- Entry at 33¢ is already slightly ahead of the current 36¢ price.
$5,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $15,261 (77% win rate)
- 0x9078...26af — No, $13,261
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $10,657 (41% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — Yes, $8,566 (70% win rate)
- 0x854e...b675 — No, $6,405 (80% win rate)
- 0xd67b...5780 — Yes, $4,509 (44% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $3,308 (46% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — Yes, $2,030 (73% win rate)
- 0x2e61...19bd — No, $2,000 (51% win rate)
- 0x4dce...ea78 — No, $1,970
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