What is the Cuba leader prediction market asking?

The market asks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will be out as President of Cuba by December 31, 2026. It covers any period between market creation and the specified deadline.

When does the Miguel Díaz-Canel market resolve?

The market resolves on December 31, 2026, at the specified Eastern Time deadline, unless an earlier qualifying announcement triggers resolution.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if Miguel Díaz-Canel resigns, is removed, or is otherwise effectively removed from the presidency for any period before the deadline. An announcement of resignation or removal can trigger immediate resolution even if it takes effect later.

What would make the market resolve No?

The market resolves No if Miguel Díaz-Canel remains President of Cuba throughout the relevant period and no qualifying resignation, removal, or effective loss of office occurs before the deadline.

What do smart money signals show for this Cuba prediction market?

PolySpotter tracks $6,473 in smart money for this market. Recent signals include buying No from accounts with historical win rates of 92%, along with an 82% winner exiting No.

Part of: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will cease to be President of Cuba at any point before December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if his resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, or if he is otherwise effectively removed; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently includes $6,473 in tracked smart money and recent signals favoring No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,870.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Venezuela, Trump, Cuba

Notable Trades

92% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a political leadership market, adding to a cross-market thesis.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
They have $6.0k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Bought No at 63¢, and the market has already moved to 66¢.

$6,473 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a political leadership market, adding to a cross-market thesis.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
They have $6.0k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Bought No at 63¢, and the market has already moved to 66¢.

$3,556 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

82% winner exits No

A profitable 82% winner exited a No position, which is directionally equivalent to buying Yes, but the signal is modest because this looks like closing a prior position rather than fresh sizing.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $6.1K lifetime.
They sold No at 52¢, which is directionally equivalent to buying Yes around 48¢.
The trade is modest in size, but the wallet has a proven record across 44 resolved markets.

$2,842 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%