What does this Fed rate prediction market cover?

It asks whether the upper bound of the Fed’s target federal funds range will be exactly 4.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting.

When does the 2026 Fed rate market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the FOMC meeting on December 8–9, 2026, with a listed resolution date of January 1, 2027.

What are the current Polymarket odds for a 4.25% Fed rate?

The supplied market metadata does not include the current market price or odds. Check the live market page for the latest probability.

What smart-money activity is tracked for this market?

PolySpotter reports $14,537 in tracked smart-money activity across two signals, including alerts about a whale adding to YES and a profitable veteran expanding a position.

Part of: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range will be 4.25% after its December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting. Current odds are not included in the provided market data; PolySpotter tracks $14,537 in smart-money activity across two signals.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,537.

Categories: Fed Rates, Economic Policy, Trump, Fed, Politics, Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh

Notable Trades

Whale scaling into Fed YES

A large, linked-wallet buying surge adds $12.5k to a trader’s existing $48.8k YES position in a thin market, despite a sharp recent price decline.

The bettor added $12,520 to an existing $48,793 YES position, showing substantial conviction.
Two wallets share a funder, and the trades were many times the market’s $157 in 24-hour volume.
YES has fallen about 45% over the past week, so this is a large buy against recent momentum.

$12,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable veteran adding to $49K position

A profitable, highly active trader added to an existing roughly $49K Yes position in a thin market, though the incremental trade was modest and the market has since moved against it.

This trader is up about $101K across more than 1,500 resolved bets, though their 86% win rate came at an average winning price of 93¢.
The $2,017 buy adds to an existing roughly $48,800 Yes position in a market with only $157 in 24-hour volume.
The trade entered at 37¢, but the market has since fallen sharply and the current order book is unusually wide.

$2,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%