What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
5 signals across 3 markets · $111,235 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on where the upper bound of the federal funds target range will land after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Traders are currently pricing specific year-end 2026 outcomes, including 3.5% and 3.75%, with PolySpotter tracking $96,698 in smart money activity across the event. Recent alerts point to a 4-wallet macro rate cluster, suggesting coordinated or overlapping interest from sophisticated Fed-rate bettors.
Markets (3)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?2 signals · $71,518 tracked
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?1 signal · $25,180 tracked
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?2 signals · $14,537 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 4-wallet macro rate cluster
Four wallets piled $25.2k into No within two minutes, including two linked wallets, creating a major one-sided flow signal in a macro market with a huge volume spike.
$25,180Score: 8.8 - Whale scaling into Fed YES
A large, linked-wallet buying surge adds $12.5k to a trader’s existing $48.8k YES position in a thin market, despite a sharp recent price decline.
$12,520Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.4 - Profitable veteran adding to $49K position
A profitable, highly active trader added to an existing roughly $49K Yes position in a thin market, though the incremental trade was modest and the market has since moved against it.
$2,017Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.0 - Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Three wallets sold the same side within minutes for nearly $47k, driving a 409x volume spike in a macro market with modest liquidity, which looks like coordinated conviction worth watching despite limited wallet track records.
$46,851Score: 7.1 - Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Three wallets bought nearly $25k of NO at the same 71¢ price, dominating most of the day's volume in a macro market with decent liquidity, which points to coordinated conviction despite only modest wallet track records.
$24,667Score: 4.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0xcdb1f1…276c$14,537 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for the Fed rate at the end of 2026?
The odds come from Polymarket markets tied to the upper bound of the federal funds target range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. This event page aggregates the related outcomes being traded, including 3.5% and 3.75%.
What does this Fed rate prediction market resolve on?
It resolves based on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting, according to the Fed’s official policy statement.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $96,698 in smart money activity across this event and 3 signals. A recent alert highlighted a 4-wallet macro rate cluster, indicating notable interest from wallets focused on macro and rates markets.
Which Fed rate outcomes are being traded for end-2026?
The event currently includes child markets on whether the upper bound will be 3.5% or 3.75% at the end of 2026. These markets let traders express views on the Fed’s policy path through the December 2026 meeting.
When will the Fed rate market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after the December 2026 FOMC statement, currently scheduled for December 9, 2026, once the target federal funds range is known.