Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,800.
Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump
Notable Trades
95% serial trader buying Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes before a major price move amid a large volume spike.
- This bettor has won 95% of 3,100 resolved bets across hundreds of events.
- They bought Yes at 89¢ before the market moved to 94¢.
- Market activity spiked 18.8x and Yes jumped 26 percentage points, supporting the same direction.
$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
94% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite the market rallying hard toward Yes.
- This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved trades and is up $3.6K lifetime.
- They bought No at 40¢ against a major Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian view from a proven wallet.
- The market is highly active, with $222K traded in 24h and Yes up 55 points in a day.
$1,210 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
$730K-profit trader buys No
A small but coordinated contrarian No cluster is notable because one buyer has large lifetime profits and the group entered before No moved from roughly 13¢ to 17¢.
- One No buyer is up about $730K lifetime across a large betting history.
- Three wallets all took the contrarian No side while the market heavily favors Yes at 83%.
- The cluster entered around 13¢ on average, and No has already moved up to 17¢.
$4,449 on No
92% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No, with related cross-market positioning on the same event.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $6.3k lifetime.
- They bought $2.1k of No at 80¢ while also positioning across a related market.
- The market has drifted toward No, down 18 points this week for Yes.
$2,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
New profitable repeat bettor
A 4-day-old wallet is making a repeat, profitable-looking bet against Claude Fable 5 restoration, with nearly $4k flagged across related markets.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already had two flagged bets totaling nearly $4k.
- The wallet is up $475 on its only resolved bet so far, making this early track record worth watching.
- Buying No at 74¢ goes with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 9 points in the last day.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable new wallet moves Yes
A new but already profitable wallet made a concentrated Yes buy that coincided with a fast 12-point move, though its track record is still very short.
- This new wallet is already up $1.8k and has 5 resolved positions on record.
- The $1.7k Yes buy helped push the market up 12 points in 5 minutes.
- The bettor paid 60¢ while Yes is now around 52¢, offering a cheaper entry than their fill.
$1,245 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%
Fresh wallet scaling into No
A 1-day-old repeat large bettor put $6.3k toward No and is active across related markets, making this a notable conviction trade despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets totaling about $16k.
- It put $6.3k behind No here, betting access will not be restored before the July 1 deadline.
- The same wallet is active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$6,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 35%
Sharp profitable buyer
Surface despite the weak price-impact signal because the buyer has a strong 158-bet track record and $3.86M lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 68¢ before the market moved to 71¢.
- The market is active and near-term, so a sharp wallet taking a fresh Yes position is worth following.
$1,149 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Three-wallet No cluster
Three wallets are aligned on No with $5.7k in flow, including a repeat new-wallet bettor and a profitable high-win-rate wallet, while the market has already moved toward their thesis.
- Three wallets put $5.7k on No, with entries between 30¢ and 46¢ before No rose to 50¢.
- One wallet wins 86% of resolved trades, while another is a new repeat bettor already flagged across 3 positions.
- The market has seen heavy recent movement, and this cluster is betting that access will not be restored by July 1.
$5,668 on No
Proven AI-event bettor
Surface because the bettor has a proven 79% resolved-bet win rate with positive lifetime P&L, even though this specific bet is modest on a fairly liquid market.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.1K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 71¢, implying confidence despite the market already pricing restoration as likely.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
$4,654 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xc135...21b0 — Outcome 74798572, $26,357 (42% win rate)
- 0x3659...b2c2 — Outcome 74798572, $15,664
- 0xa93e...0a8c — Outcome 74798572, $12,286
- 0x95dc...5576 — Outcome 74798572, $11,523
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 74798572, $8,846
- 0x79d9...baec — Outcome 74798572, $7,800 (92% win rate)
- 0x5fae...4079 — Outcome 74798572, $7,635 (69% win rate)
- 0x20da...3f28 — Outcome 74798572, $6,845 (83% win rate)
- 0x2e7a...29f6 — Outcome 74798572, $6,748 (53% win rate)
- 0x7bec...b4e2 — Outcome 74798572, $6,295 (80% win rate)
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