What is the Iran coup attempt by June 30 prediction market about?

This market predicts whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Iran between the market’s creation and June 30, 2026. A qualifying event must involve coordinated action by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or leadership.

When does the Iran coup attempt market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after June 30, 2026, based on whether a qualifying coup attempt was widely reported before 11:59 PM ET on that date.

What would count as a “Yes” outcome?

A “Yes” outcome would require a coordinated and deliberate coup attempt by state actors or factions, such as military or security forces, aimed at taking control of Iran’s government or leadership. General protests, unrest, or revolutionary activity by non-state groups would not automatically qualify.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,484 in smart money activity for this market, with recent alerts showing wallets and whales backing “No” and fading the risk of a coup attempt.

Where can I track Iran coup attempt Polymarket odds?

You can track this market on PolySpotter to follow Polymarket odds, smart money signals, whale activity, and updates related to whether an Iran coup attempt occurs by June 30, 2026.

Part of: Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether a widely reported coup attempt will occur in Iran by June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if military, security, or other state actors make a coordinated effort to overthrow or seize control of Iran’s government; current smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter totals $2,484, with recent signals backing “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $389,513.

Categories: Iran, Israel, World, Trump, Middle East, Geopolitics, Iran Regime, Reza Pahlavi

Notable Trades

New wallet buying No

A new repeat large-bet wallet is taking the 90¢ No side during a major volume spike, but the lack of resolved history makes this more of a flow signal than a proven sharp bettor.

A new wallet placed two repeat bets totaling $2.5K on No at 90¢.
Market volume is running about 45x above its historical pace, suggesting fresh attention around this question.
The bet is contrarian to the recent Yes uptick, backing the 90% favorite despite elevated activity.

$2,484 on No

New wallet buying No

A new wallet repeatedly bought $7.9k of No during an unusually large volume spike on a politically meaningful market, though there is no proven wallet track record yet.

A new wallet put $7.9k into No in five rapid buys at 90¢.
Market volume is spiking over 100x its historical pace, suggesting fresh attention around this outcome.
The trade is a high-probability position, but the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$7,875 on No

New wallet fading spike

A new wallet made repeated No buys during a 112x volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market, suggesting a timely fade of coup-attempt speculation despite limited wallet history.

A fresh wallet bought $2.7k of No in two back-to-back trades at 90¢.
Market activity is surging, with volume running 112x above its historical average.
This looks like a conviction fade of the Iran coup-attempt chatter rather than a proven sharp-wallet trade.

$2,736 on No

New whale buying NO

A new wallet is making repeated five-figure No buys during a major volume spike on a geopolitical market, though it has no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet put $16.4k into No across 7 rapid buys at 90¢.
This is the wallet’s fourth large-bet alert, suggesting repeated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
Market volume is running 127x above its historical average, making this flow worth watching.

$16,380 on No

New whale buying No

A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another large, concentrated No bet on a high-volume geopolitical market amid a major volume spike, but it has no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet has now been flagged 24 times, with about $69k in notable bets despite no resolved history yet.
This trade adds $19.5k on No at 90¢, matching the market’s current best price.
Market activity is unusually elevated, with volume running about 268x above its historical average.

$19,530 on No

New whale buying No

A repeat-flagged new wallet has put meaningful size into No on a geopolitics market during a large volume spike, but there is no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet is repeatedly betting large, with $69K flagged across 24 alerts and $22.4K added here.
This is fresh size into No at 90¢ on a market with heavy 24h activity and a 151x volume spike.
The bet is high-confidence but low-upside: buying at 90¢ targets a relatively small return if no coup attempt occurs.

$22,410 on No

Repeat new whale on NO

A repeat new wallet is making a large, concentrated No bet into a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, but it has no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet has now been flagged 18 times and put over $52K into large bets, suggesting a repeat high-conviction bettor.
This trade added $34K on No around 90¢, across 12 rapid buys in about 13 minutes.
Market volume spiked 119x versus its normal pace, showing this bet came during unusual activity.

$34,158 on No

Repeat new wallet buying favorite

A repeat new wallet is putting meaningful size into No during a sharp volume spike, but there is no proven track record yet and the bet is on a heavy favorite.

A new wallet has now been flagged 17 times, with nearly $50K in notable bets.
This trade adds net exposure to No around 89–90¢ during a 105x volume spike.
The market is seeing unusually heavy activity, with $249K traded in the past 24 hours.

$14,628 on No

New whale fading coup risk

A repeat-flagged new wallet put a large concentrated No position into a geopolitics market during a 157x volume spike, despite having no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet put about $38K into No at 89–90¢, adding size in repeated buys.
Market volume spiked 157x versus its historical pace, suggesting a sudden wave of attention.
This is a geopolitics market where informed views may matter, but the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$38,124 on No

New whale buying No

A repeat-flagged new wallet put roughly $35k into No during a major volume spike, signaling high conviction against an Iran coup attempt despite no resolved track record.

A new wallet is making a large, repeated bet, with $46,992 total flagged across recent activity.
This trade adds roughly $35k at 89¢ during a 248x volume spike versus the market’s usual activity.
The position is effectively betting the coup-attempt odds are too high, with No already priced near 89¢.

$35,244 on No