Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
This Israel-Iran ceasefire prediction market asks whether the ceasefire will remain in effect through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves “Yes” if no qualifying air strike or other military action occurs between the two countries; the market currently has one tracked smart-money signal, with a trader doubling down on Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $17,365.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial trader doubles down on Yes
A serial cross-market trader is adding $17,365 to an existing Yes position while expressing the same thesis across seven related markets, though their historical results do not show clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This trader added $17,365 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment in the market to about $44,000.
- They are positioning across seven related markets with $80,827 committed, indicating a broad and concentrated ceasefire thesis.
- The wallet has completed 1,187 bets with a 67% win rate and is up about $201,000, but its average winning entry price is high at 81¢.
$17,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $31,626 (69% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $27,010 (67% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $19,648 (67% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $15,010 (61% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $12,039 (43% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $8,760 (48% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — No, $6,643
- 0xd726...b5c9 — No, $6,106 (59% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $5,555 (51% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — No, $5,000 (34% win rate)
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