Part of: Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,233.

Categories: Politics, Trump, Culture, Trump-Netanyahu

Notable Trades

Linked cluster scaling into No

Three wallets, including two linked accounts and experienced profitable traders, made a concentrated $17,039 bet on No amid a sharp volume spike.

Three wallets put $17,039 on No, including two accounts sharing a funder.
The trade followed a 42x historical volume spike, while No was bought around 67–69¢.
Two participating serial traders win 72–73% of resolved bets across hundreds of markets.

$17,039 on No

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial trader with 503 resolved bets added $4,194 to an existing No position during a 72.8x volume spike, though the historical edge is modest.

A serial trader with 503 resolved bets and $2.6 million in historical volume is adding to an existing No position.
The $4,194 purchase came during a 72.8x spike in activity, suggesting notable market-wide positioning.
The wallet already has $13,000 invested in No, signaling increased conviction rather than a routine new position.

$4,194 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%