Part of: Iran leader end of 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will de facto hold and exercise the powers of Iran’s head of state on December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks live Polymarket pricing and smart-money activity, including $5,845 in tracked smart money and recent signals such as profitable traders buying No and a 3-wallet Yes surge.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

17 smart money signals detected, totaling $140,101.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Geopolitics, Politics, Iran Regime, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable serial thesis trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 72-bet record flipped into Yes on a high-volume Iran succession market showing recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up about $406k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.9M deployed across 111 related markets.
  • They flipped from a closed No position into Yes as the market climbed 11.5 points this week.

$5,845 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Serial trader flips Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved-bet win rate has flipped from a prior No position into a fresh Yes buy, though the new size is modest.

  • This bettor wins 70% of resolved bets and is up about $293K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 50 events and 109 markets with $3.6M deployed.
  • After closing a prior No position, they are now buying Yes at 69¢.

$1,165 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side as part of a broader Iran succession thesis across 8 related markets.

  • This bettor has traded 222 markets across 108 events and is up about $91.8K lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 8 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader Iran succession thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 70¢ is equivalent to buying No at 30¢, a contrarian bet against the current 70% favorite.

$1,026 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable cluster buying No

High-scoring coordinated No positioning from three profitable, highly active cross-market traders, backed by a 17.6x volume spike and recent price move toward No.

  • Three profitable wallets are all taking the No side, totaling $11.5K in coordinated flow.
  • Two wallets are seasoned cross-market traders, including one with $3.55M traded across 106 markets and a 70% win rate.
  • Volume is 17.6x above normal, and No has already moved from roughly 27¢ to 31¢.

$11,527 on No

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying No at 29¢ on a major political succession market, though sizing is modest.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 947 resolved bets and about $148k in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 35 events and 54 markets.
  • Selling Yes at 71¢ is effectively buying No at 29¢, a contrarian bet against the current market favorite.

$1,423 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

96% winner leans YES

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L sold No, equivalent to buying Yes at 69¢, despite this only being a weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 26 of 27 resolved bets and is up $55k lifetime.
  • Selling No at 31¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 69¢.
  • They are exiting a prior No position as the market has moved toward Yes.

$1,991 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

91% winner fades Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a 91% winning bettor with positive P&L made a $24.6k trade equivalent to buying No at 35¢, though it may partly reflect closing an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up $5.7k lifetime.
  • The $24.6k sell of Yes is equivalent to buying No at 35¢.
  • Entry at 35¢ implies roughly a 2.9x payout if Mojtaba Khamenei is not Iran’s head of state at end-2026.

$24,586 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

3-wallet Yes surge

Three wallets put $41k on Yes during a 122x volume spike, including one profitable high-hit-rate bettor, making the one-sided flow worth surfacing despite limited wallet track records.

  • Three wallets all backed the same outcome with $41k, a large coordinated-looking push into Yes.
  • Market volume spiked 122x above its historical average during these trades.
  • One wallet is profitable and has won 75% of resolved bets, though the sample is still small.

$41,178 on Yes

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $157,907 lifetime profit is buying Yes on a plausible geopolitical succession market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,033 resolved trades and is up $157,907 lifetime.
  • They have traded across 163 events and $1.6M of cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
  • Buying Yes at 64¢ goes against a small weekly drift lower, implying they still see value at current odds.

$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

75% winning political bettor

Surfacing because a proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $156k lifetime profit bought Yes on a political succession market.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $156k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 252 markets, suggesting this is part of a broad political/news thesis.
  • Entry at 65¢ implies they see Mojtaba Khamenei as materially more likely than the market baseline.

$1,206 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x96f4...edc5 No, $304,502
  2. 0xfb51...742d Yes, $77,370 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x12d6...f2a8 Yes, $69,334 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $48,820 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $44,844 (63% win rate)
  6. 0xa022...77f8 Yes, $38,097 (70% win rate)
  7. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $37,013
  8. 0x7b1e...1385 No, $33,196
  9. 0xe8ff...c93b Yes, $20,000 (65% win rate)
  10. 0x8e5c...a68a Yes, $18,915 (80% win rate)

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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

182dIran leader end of 2026?$140,101 tracked17 signalsMiddle EastIranWorldGeopoliticsPoliticsIran RegimeRewards 50, 4.5, 100 DeprecRewards 50, 4.5, 100Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Yes
83¢
No
17¢

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Price History — “Yes
86¢
83¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

16d ago

$5,845 on Yes at 81¢

81¢83¢2¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

23d ago

$1,165 on Yes at 69¢

69¢83¢14¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

23d ago

$1,026 on No at 30¢

30¢17¢13¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

23d ago

$11,527 on No at 29¢

29¢17¢12¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

29d ago

$1,423 on No at 29¢

29¢17¢12¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

38d ago

$1,991 on Yes at 69¢

69¢83¢14¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

44d ago

$24,586 on No at 35¢

35¢17¢18¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

47d ago

$41,178 on Yes at 64¢

64¢83¢19¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

47d ago

$1,760 on Yes at 64¢

64¢83¢19¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

50d ago

$1,206 on Yes at 65¢

65¢83¢18¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

56d ago

$6,738 on Yes at 66¢

66¢83¢17¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

68d ago

$9,311 on No at 44¢

44¢17¢27¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

91d ago

$16,247 on Yes at 66¢

66¢83¢17¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

91d ago

$3,038 on Yes at 66¢

66¢83¢17¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

91d ago

$3,089 on Yes at 65¢

65¢83¢18¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

94d ago

$3,814 on Yes at 45¢

45¢83¢38¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

100d ago

$6,158 on Yes at 37¢

37¢83¢46¢

Related Theses