Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,972.
Notable Trades
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought Yes at 45¢, making this a credible thesis-driven entry worth following despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $587k overall
- They have traded 201 related markets across 129 events, which points to a repeatable event-driven edge
- Bought Yes at 45¢ in a liquid market, implying they see the succession odds as meaningfully higher
$3,814 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets across markets and just bought Yes at 37¢ on a major geopolitical market that has already moved to 45%, suggesting early conviction worth watching.
- This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $132k, showing aggressive early conviction.
- They bought Yes at 37¢ and the market is now 45%, so this entry was ahead of the move.
- The bet is sizeable at $6.2k on a serious geopolitical market, not a meme market.
$6,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x96f4...edc5 — No, $110,154
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $72,731 (47% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — Yes, $33,313 (73% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $25,935 (100% win rate)
- 0xc021...1fa8 — Yes, $18,765 (51% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $17,623 (88% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $17,008
- 0xfcf2...a469 — Yes, $15,698
- 0xdfe3...73c4 — No, $11,433
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $10,178 (39% win rate)
