Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?

Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,715.

Categories: World, Elections, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, International Election Props, Germany, Politics, Saxony-Anhalt, German Elections, Global Elections

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader added a substantial No position in a thin, wide-spread market, though their historical win rate does not clearly exceed the odds they typically pay.

  • This bettor has traded across 75 events and 81 markets, with 1,729 wins from 2,211 resolved bets.
  • They added $3,715 to an existing No position in a market with only $7,857 in 24-hour volume.
  • The 68¢ entry has already moved to about 87¢, but the wide spread and long-dated resolution make price discipline important.

$3,715 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 92471782, $6,018
  2. 0x6db9...4ab5 Outcome 41041373, $5,000 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 41041373, $2,862 (94% win rate)
  4. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 41041373, $754 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 41041373, $700 (62% win rate)
  6. 0xcfff...673d Outcome 41041373, $276
  7. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 41041373, $265 (82% win rate)
  8. 0x4f1d...8de2 Outcome 41041373, $254 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x94bb...6807 Outcome 41041373, $240
  10. 0xa667...ceb3 Outcome 41041373, $227 (90% win rate)

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Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?

ResolvedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?$3,715 tracked1 signalWorldElectionsSachsen-AnhaltWorld ElectionsInternational Election PropsGermanyPoliticsSaxony-AnhaltGerman ElectionsGlobal Elections

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Price History — “No
102¢
78¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?

4d ago

$3,715 on No at 68¢

Related Theses