What does this Iran leadership change prediction market cover?

This market tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei stops being the de facto leader of Iran before May 31, 2026. A Yes outcome requires that he be removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting in that role during the market timeframe.

When does the market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether the leadership change happens by May 31, 2026. If no qualifying change occurs before that deadline, the market resolves to No.

What counts as a Yes outcome in this Polymarket?

Yes means Mojtaba Khamenei is no longer the de facto leader of Iran at any point during the market window. That can include removal, detention, or another clear loss of power that prevents him from functioning in the role.

What are traders signaling right now?

PolySpotter’s recent alerts show interest from experienced event and political traders, including a serial event trader buying No. While smart money signals do not guarantee the result, they can help explain where informed traders are leaning.

Why are people searching for Iran leadership change odds?

Searchers are usually looking for real-time prediction market odds, geopolitical risk sentiment, and how traders are pricing the chances of a power shift in Iran. This market offers a crowd-based view of that probability ahead of the May 2026 deadline.

Iran leadership change by May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before May 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if he is removed, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader during the market window; otherwise it resolves to No. Recent smart money activity on PolySpotter includes event-focused and political traders, with a notable signal showing buying on the No side.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $80,809.

Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out

Notable Trades

74% cross-market Iran bettor

A proven 74% winner with $164k profit is building a broader $60k No thesis across six related Iran leadership markets.

This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $164k lifetime.
They have placed $60k across six related Iran leadership markets, showing a clear No thesis.
Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see leadership change by May 31 as unlikely.

$3,104 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

15-wallet cluster buying NO

A known 15-wallet funded cluster with an 87% hit rate is placing a $9.4k status-quo bet on a geopolitical market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets across 930 bets, though mostly on heavy favorites.
The wallet is part of a 15-wallet funded cluster with over $8.5M in cross-market trading history.
A $9.4k buy at 87¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership will not change by May 31.

$9,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Serial cross-market Yes bettor

High-scoring cross-market signal from a very active political trader taking a contrarian Yes position across related Iran leadership markets, though the single trade is modest versus market volume.

This wallet has $161k positioned across 3 related markets in the same event.
The trade converts to buying Yes at 13¢, against the market’s 86% No consensus.
This is a highly active trader across 222 markets, with most resolved bets ending in wins.

$2,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Iran leadership change by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,760 | Wallet win rate: 94%

Iran leadership change by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,047 | Wallet win rate: 94%

74% cross-market bettor buys NO

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record is buying No as part of a broader $24k Iran-event position amid a major volume spike.

This bettor has won 74% of 326 resolved trades and is up about $220k lifetime.
They are positioning across 4 related markets with about $24k total, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
Market activity spiked 175x above normal, adding momentum behind the move.

$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Iran leadership change by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$8,600 | Wallet win rate: 74%

87% win-rate geopolitics sharp

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 87% win rate put fresh money into No at 86¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follow signal despite only one detection source.

This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up about $204k across $5.7M invested.
They trade heavily across related markets — 109 events and 155 markets — which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
They bought No at 86¢ in a liquid news market, signaling they see leadership change by May 31 as less likely than the market implies.

$3,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp event trader

A profitable wallet with an 83% hit rate is making a sizable cross-market thesis bet, buying No at 86¢ in the Iran leadership event after already trading three related markets.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $25.6k overall.
They have put $35.3k across 3 related Iran leadership markets, suggesting a clear event-level view.
The latest bet is $8.1k on No at 86¢ in a market with nearly $47k of 24-hour volume.

$8,134 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

83% win-rate event trader

A profitable bettor with an 83% hit rate is expressing the same Iran thesis across three related markets, adding a meaningful $3.5k position on No at 86¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $25.6k overall
They have put $30.6k across 3 related Iran markets, which points to a clear event-level thesis
Buying No at 86¢ means they see leadership change by May 31 as less likely than the current 15% Yes price implies

$3,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%