Iran leadership change by...?
58 signals across 4 markets · $286,250 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- 15-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 15-wallet funded cluster with an 87% hit rate is placing a $9.4k status-quo bet on a geopolitical market.
$9,450Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 12.0 - 74% cross-market bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record is buying No as part of a broader $24k Iran-event position amid a major volume spike.
$1,740Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 11.7 - 86% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A proven high-win-rate bettor put nearly $17k into Yes as part of a $64k cross-market thesis during an extreme volume spike and breakout move in a major geopolitics market.
$16,902Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 11.6 - 84% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader is expressing a broader event thesis across three related markets, and this trade translates into buying Yes around 41¢ on a liquid news-driven market.
$1,775Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - 84% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market event history is adding a bullish view on Iran leadership change by effectively buying Yes at 42¢.
$1,044Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - 85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with over $400k in realized profits is making a sizable cross-market bet on the same geopolitical event, backing No at 84¢.
$7,546Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - 84% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is expressing a fresh view across multiple related markets, and this trade converts to buying Yes at 40¢.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - 18-wallet political cluster
Profitable cross-market trader from a large linked-wallet cluster bought No at 87¢ in a thin, event-driven geopolitical market, reinforcing a broader multi-market thesis.
$5,032Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 10.0 - Proven cross-market bettor
A highly experienced profitable wallet with a 74% win rate is making a fresh $8k No bet as part of a larger $57k cross-market Iran leadership thesis.
$8,000Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 10.0 - Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is re-entering No and has $74k positioned across six related markets in the same Iran event.
$1,083Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 10.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe2708b…0fc7$41,280 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xae7c98…487e$31,949 · 3 markets · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xa04d26…eecf$31,939 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$30,743 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x8e5c0c…a68a$21,183 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 78% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$19,836 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$12,983 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$12,668 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x69aa9f…8847$9,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xbd9fd9…040d$9,260 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins