Iran leadership change by...?
89 signals across 4 markets · $369,646 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iran’s de facto leadership changes by several deadlines, including April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31. PolySpotter has tracked $305K+ in smart money and 66 signals across these related markets, with recent alerts highlighting sharp clusters and high win-rate geopolitical bettors leaning into NO positions.
Markets (4)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial cross-market sharp cluster
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate and very large prior volume across related markets.
$6,457Score: 17.1 - 15-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 15-wallet funded cluster with an 87% hit rate is placing a $9.4k status-quo bet on a geopolitical market.
$9,450Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 12.0 - 74% cross-market bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record is buying No as part of a broader $24k Iran-event position amid a major volume spike.
$1,740Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 11.7 - 86% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A proven high-win-rate bettor put nearly $17k into Yes as part of a $64k cross-market thesis during an extreme volume spike and breakout move in a major geopolitics market.
$16,902Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 11.6 - 82% winner flips to Yes
Surface this: a highly profitable 82% winner is flipping into Yes while also expressing a broader cross-market Iran thesis.
$1,170Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - 84% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is expressing a fresh view across multiple related markets, and this trade converts to buying Yes at 40¢.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - 85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with over $400k in realized profits is making a sizable cross-market bet on the same geopolitical event, backing No at 84¢.
$7,546Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - 84% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader is expressing a broader event thesis across three related markets, and this trade translates into buying Yes around 41¢ on a liquid news-driven market.
$1,775Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - 84% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market event history is adding a bullish view on Iran leadership change by effectively buying Yes at 42¢.
$1,044Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is re-entering No and has $74k positioned across six related markets in the same Iran event.
$1,083Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 10.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe2708b…0fc7$41,280 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x8e5c0c…a68a$35,252 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$32,043 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 71% wins
- 0xae7c98…487e$31,949 · 3 markets · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xa04d26…eecf$31,939 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$27,751 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$25,481 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$21,006 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$12,668 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$12,414 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 58% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran leadership change prediction markets about?
These markets price whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran by specific dates. The event hub combines the related April, May, June, and December deadline markets so you can compare odds across timeframes.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show multiple sharp signals on the NO side, including a 15-wallet cluster buying NO, a 74% cross-market bettor buying NO, and activity from high win-rate geopolitical bettors.
How much smart money has been tracked on these markets?
PolySpotter has tracked about $305,485 in smart money across the Iran leadership change event, with 66 separate smart money signals detected across the child markets.
When do these Iran leadership change markets resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its listed deadline, including April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31. The overall event page tracks all of those deadline-based markets together.
Where can I see Iran leadership change odds on Polymarket?
This event hub summarizes the Polymarket prediction-market odds for Iran leadership change scenarios and adds PolySpotter’s smart money context, including whale activity, sharp clusters, and bettor performance signals.