Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by May 31?
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $97,604.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is re-entering No and has $74k positioned across six related markets in the same Iran event.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,020 resolved bets and is up $155k lifetime.
- They have $74k spread across six related markets in this Iran leadership event.
- Buying No at 90¢ suggests a high-conviction view that leadership change remains unlikely by May 31.
$1,083 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial cross-market No bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved-bet hit rate is adding a $2.7k No position as part of a broader $37.8k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is negative and this is a high-price favorite.
- This bettor has won 76% of 1,180 resolved bets and trades heavily across related markets.
- They have $37.8k positioned across 5 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 90¢ is a low-upside favorite, but the market is liquid and active with $146k traded in 24h.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
34-0 bettor buying NO
A perfect-record wallet is extending a $16k cross-market thesis by buying No on a politically meaningful Iran leadership market.
- This bettor has won 34 of 34 resolved trades and is up $6.7k lifetime.
- They have put $16.2k across 3 related markets, all pointing to the same thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ suggests a conservative but high-conviction view that leadership change is unlikely.
$4,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is backing No across this Iran leadership event with meaningful total sizing.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,039 resolved bets and is up $285K lifetime.
- They have traded 43 related events before and now have $73.8K positioned across 3 markets in this event.
- Buying No at 89¢ shows a high-conviction view that Iran’s leadership does not change by the deadline.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
74% cross-market Iran bettor
A proven 74% winner with $164k profit is building a broader $60k No thesis across six related Iran leadership markets.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $164k lifetime.
- They have placed $60k across six related Iran leadership markets, showing a clear No thesis.
- Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see leadership change by May 31 as unlikely.
$3,104 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
15-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 15-wallet funded cluster with an 87% hit rate is placing a $9.4k status-quo bet on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets across 930 bets, though mostly on heavy favorites.
- The wallet is part of a 15-wallet funded cluster with over $8.5M in cross-market trading history.
- A $9.4k buy at 87¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership will not change by May 31.
$9,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Serial cross-market Yes bettor
High-scoring cross-market signal from a very active political trader taking a contrarian Yes position across related Iran leadership markets, though the single trade is modest versus market volume.
- This wallet has $161k positioned across 3 related markets in the same event.
- The trade converts to buying Yes at 13¢, against the market’s 86% No consensus.
- This is a highly active trader across 222 markets, with most resolved bets ending in wins.
$2,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,760 | Wallet win rate: 94%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,047 | Wallet win rate: 94%
74% cross-market bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record is buying No as part of a broader $24k Iran-event position amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 74% of 326 resolved trades and is up about $220k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related markets with about $24k total, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Market activity spiked 175x above normal, adding momentum behind the move.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 81334325, $49,912 (87% win rate)
- 0xafc0...5087 — Outcome 81334325, $41,481 (67% win rate)
- 0x3e59...b2be — Outcome 81334325, $35,236
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 81334325, $25,333 (69% win rate)
- 0x859d...fccb — Outcome 81334325, $21,270
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 81334325, $20,000
- 0x521c...38f9 — Outcome 81334325, $18,400
- 0xe649...ee94 — Outcome 81334325, $15,385
- 0x5ca7...8195 — Outcome 81334325, $15,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xc94a...d6c6 — Outcome 81334325, $14,665
