US forces enter Iran by March 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
46 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,014,785.
Notable Trades
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate bought No at 88¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-style position despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades across 1,291 bets
- They trade heavily across related events — 77 events and 589 markets for $167k tracked
- Bought No at 88¢ in a deep geopolitics market, showing a high-confidence base-case view
$5,222 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate just made a fresh ~$14k bet effectively buying Yes around 12¢ on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 959 bets and has traded 116 markets in 71 events.
- They effectively bought Yes at about 12¢ by selling No, turning a small earlier test position into a much larger fresh bet.
- The market is deep and active, so a $14k bet from a proven bettor matters more than a random thin-market punt.
$13,977 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is taking a fresh bullish position on Yes by selling No at 88¢, despite the market being deep and otherwise calm.
- This bettor has won 883 of 959 resolved markets, a 92% hit rate across 71 events.
- The trade sells No at 88¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 12¢ on a fresh position.
- A $5.8k bet from a proven cross-market trader stands out more than the market’s flat recent price action.
$5,770 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate just made a fresh binary-equivalent buy on Yes at 12¢, and their broad profitable history makes the signal worth watching despite the modest size in a very liquid market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved markets across 959 bets and has traded 116 related markets.
- Selling No at 88¢ is the same as buying Yes at 12¢, a cheap entry on a geopolitical market where informed views can matter.
- This is a fresh position change, not routine profit-taking, after an earlier small Yes bet was already closed.
$3,485 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A repeat new wallet has already placed over $55k in flagged bets and is making another sizable geopolitical trade, selling Yes at 12¢ which translates to buying No at 88¢.
- This 15-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts with $55.6k flagged total
- It is betting against US forces entering Iran by March 31, effectively buying No at 88¢
- The trader is also active across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$7,369 on No
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved win rate bought No at 83¢ in a major geopolitics market and the price has since moved further in their favor to 87%.
- This bettor has won 873 of 903 resolved markets, a 97% hit rate across 191 events.
- They bought No at 83¢ and the market has already moved to 87¢, confirming the trade direction.
- Their activity spans 3 related markets in the same event with $26k deployed, showing a coordinated macro view.
$3,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a major geopolitics market and the price moved further in their direction afterward.
- This bettor has won 670 of 909 resolved markets and is up $152k overall.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 79 events and 162 markets tracked.
- They bought No at 81¢ and the market moved to 87¢ after the trade, showing follow-through.
$4,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A new repeat wallet dumped $14.1k of Yes in a major geopolitics market, helping push price down sharply, which translates into a clear BUY No signal at 62-68¢.
- A 14-day-old wallet has already made 6 flagged bets and sold $14.1k of Yes here in three quick trades.
- Those sells hit 32-38¢ and helped drive Yes down about 25 points, showing strong conviction against US forces entering Iran.
- This converts to buying No around 62-68¢, with the market now still offering about 78¢ implied odds.
$14,143 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 75% hit rate just opened a fresh $5.6k No position that is already well in profit, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth watching.
- This bettor has won 186 of 247 resolved markets and is up $135k overall.
- They trade heavily across related geopolitical markets: 46 events, 64 markets, and $3.3M deployed.
- They bought No at 66¢ and the market is already at 78¢, showing strong follow-through after entry.
$5,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A repeat new wallet put $10.7k into the bearish side of this geopolitics market, and the trades line up with a broader event-themed positioning pattern plus a notable price move.
- A 14-day-old wallet has already been flagged 4 times and just put $10.7k on the NO side here
- These sells of Yes at 32¢ and 38¢ translate to buying No at 68¢ and 62¢, showing clear bearish conviction
- The wallet is also trading a related market in the same event, while this market saw a 19-point move and a 10.4x volume spike
$10,743 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $805,957 (72% win rate)
- 0xa7d1...b824 — Yes, $777,287 (100% win rate)
- 0x11e5...ee4d — Yes, $422,477 (71% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $341,344 (42% win rate)
- 0xa25c...6430 — Yes, $301,466 (100% win rate)
- 0x8489...c184 — No, $279,586 (100% win rate)
- 0x842a...92f5 — No, $230,721
- 0x9b69...38d3 — No, $207,368
- 0xc09d...e09f — No, $201,322
- 0xa43a...94b2 — Yes, $195,854
