US forces enter Iran by..?
184 signals across 3 markets · $2,857,468 tracked
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether active US military personnel physically enter Iran by several deadlines, including March 31, April 30, and December 31. PolySpotter aggregates the related markets into one hub so you can follow how traders price the risk across timeframes, with recent smart money alerts showing multiple NO clusters and contrarian activity.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 29-wallet NO cluster
A very large 29-wallet cluster, including 11 linked wallets, collectively flipped into the same bearish view on a major geopolitics market, with several strong cross-market traders and some high-win-rate wallets behind the flow.
$116,599Score: 77.0 - US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A linked 12-wallet cluster put $152k behind Yes via equivalent No sells in a major geopolitics market, including one elite 99% win-rate wallet, making this coordinated conviction worth surfacing despite mixed individual records.
$151,987Score: 34.0 - 6-wallet contrarian cluster
Six wallets collectively flipped into the same bearish Iran-invasion view, including one serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and a profitable 75% win-rate wallet, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
$26,123Score: 28.1 - Sharp cluster buying No
Four wallets, including one with 921 resolved bets and a 73% win rate, are aligned on No around 9-11¢ in a major geopolitics market after a sharp weekly move, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching.
$6,736Score: 23.5 - 4-wallet Iran NO cluster
Four wallets coordinated into No around 10-11¢ across this Iran market and related event markets, signaling a broader multi-market thesis despite mixed individual wallet quality.
$11,812Score: 21.0 - 7-wallet thesis cluster
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader from a 7-wallet funded cluster is rotating into the bullish side here, with the sell of No converting to a fresh Yes buy around 68¢ after a major move.
$6,437Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 18.1 - US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate joined a 17-wallet one-sided cluster buying No, adding coordinated conviction on a major geopolitics market.
$3,448Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 18.0 - 94% winner in funded cluster
A proven 94% win-rate trader from a 5-wallet funded cluster is buying alongside a broader cross-market thesis, making this coordinated high-signal flow worth surfacing despite the market being liquid.
$4,450Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 17.3 - US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Four wallets put nearly $38k into Yes on a major geopolitics market, including two high-win-rate bettors and a brand-new wallet, signaling coordinated conviction despite the market already trading rich.
$38,187Score: 17.0 - US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A proven 81% win-rate trader joined a 12-wallet one-sided cluster buying Yes, suggesting coordinated conviction on a high-profile geopolitics market despite the price now sitting well below their entry.
$5,900Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 17.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8c80d2…02c3$497,163 · 2 markets · 13 alerts · 81% wins
- 0x129a74…9fb6$246,027 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x1354e9…ad04$223,062 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$215,130 · 3 markets · 23 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xa41e7f…30f9$89,784 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 50% wins
- 0x5b4c67…6829$78,350 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0x00425c…321e$56,483 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 51% wins
- 0xdc03d6…804c$54,974 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x5188fa…c804$51,905 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xcf6087…47ce$51,015 · 1 market · 1 alert · 54% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for US forces entering Iran?
The odds vary by deadline, with separate markets for whether US forces enter Iran by March 31, April 30, or December 31. PolySpotter tracks the event-level view so you can compare how the market prices short-term versus longer-term escalation risk.
What does this prediction market count as US forces entering Iran?
The market resolves Yes only if active US military personnel physically enter Iran's terrestrial territory by the listed date. Aerial or maritime entry does not count, and intelligence operatives are excluded under the market rules.
What is smart money doing on this Iran event?
Recent PolySpotter alerts have highlighted several NO-side clusters, including a 29-wallet NO cluster, a sharp cluster buying No, and a 4-wallet Iran NO cluster. There has also been contrarian activity, suggesting not all tracked wallets agree on the direction.
Why are there multiple markets for the same event?
Each child market uses a different deadline, so traders can bet on whether US forces enter Iran by a specific date. The event hub combines those related deadlines to show the broader prediction-market picture.
When will these US forces enter Iran markets resolve?
Each market resolves after its listed deadline, based on whether qualifying active US military personnel physically entered Iran by that date under the market's rules.