Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
This Polymarket market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 30, 2026, using IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships.” It resolves Yes if the average reaches 60 or more on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,840 in smart money activity and recent signals on both Yes and No positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $229,744.
Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
- They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.
$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial trader buying Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market with supportive recent momentum, alongside linked-wallet activity.
- This bettor is up $918k lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $7.0M tracked across 154 markets.
- Yes has already moved up 9.5 points this week, and this trade adds to that momentum at 23¢.
$1,165 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
- They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.
$1,890 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
- Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.
$1,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
- They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
- Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.
$2,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
- They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.
$2,181 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
- They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.
$3,998 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 2-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is putting another $4.8k into No on a high-volume geopolitical shipping market.
- This brand-new wallet has already triggered 14 large-bet alerts totaling $37.6k.
- It is adding $4.8k on No at 82¢, showing repeated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- The market is highly active, with $2.26M traded in 24h and Yes up 13%, so this is a notable contrarian entry.
$4,822 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
- Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.
$2,627 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $475,040 (68% win rate)
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $420,737 (64% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $382,952 (79% win rate)
- 0x182b...f3d3 — No, $316,453 (64% win rate)
- 0xc5d3...d640 — Yes, $312,914 (82% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $301,180 (47% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $291,912 (51% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $240,000 (55% win rate)
- 0x17e3...9ba5 — No, $235,204
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $223,609 (71% win rate)
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