Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

This Polymarket market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 30, 2026, using IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships.” It resolves Yes if the average reaches 60 or more on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,840 in smart money activity and recent signals on both Yes and No positions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $229,744.

Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
  • The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial trader buying Yes

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market with supportive recent momentum, alongside linked-wallet activity.

  • This bettor is up $918k lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with $7.0M tracked across 154 markets.
  • Yes has already moved up 9.5 points this week, and this trade adds to that momentum at 23¢.

$1,165 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
  • The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,890 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
  • Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.

$1,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
  • The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
  • Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.

$2,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
  • The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$2,181 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this profitable 79% winner has flipped from a closed No position into a fresh Yes buy, despite the alert’s weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved bets and is up about $31k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a large No position and are now buying Yes at 20¢.
  • The market is very liquid, so the edge comes from the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$3,998 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

New repeat whale buying NO

A 2-day-old wallet with 14 recent large-bet flags is putting another $4.8k into No on a high-volume geopolitical shipping market.

  • This brand-new wallet has already triggered 14 large-bet alerts totaling $37.6k.
  • It is adding $4.8k on No at 82¢, showing repeated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market is highly active, with $2.26M traded in 24h and Yes up 13%, so this is a notable contrarian entry.

$4,822 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 71% wins and +$284k lifetime is effectively buying No at 81¢ on a geopolitics-linked shipping market.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved bets and is up $284k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 50 events with $3.8M total deployed.
  • Selling Yes at 19¢ is equivalent to buying No at 81¢, fading the recent Yes price jump.

$2,627 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc658...b784 Yes, $475,040 (68% win rate)
  2. 0x0c0e...434e No, $420,737 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $382,952 (79% win rate)
  4. 0x182b...f3d3 No, $316,453 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xc5d3...d640 Yes, $312,914 (82% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $301,180 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xc851...cd2a Yes, $291,912 (51% win rate)
  8. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $240,000 (55% win rate)
  9. 0x17e3...9ba5 No, $235,204
  10. 0xa022...77f8 Yes, $223,609 (71% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal unlikely by July

Covers 10 related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

16dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$229,744 tracked50 signalsMacro GeopoliticsHormuzOilshipsStrait of HormuzEconomytransitIranGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
25¢
No
76¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
95¢
84¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

4h ago

$1,840 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

4h ago

$1,165 on Yes at 23¢

23¢25¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

7h ago

$1,890 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

8h ago

$1,298 on No at 81¢

81¢76¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

10h ago

$3,000 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$2,825 on No at 81¢

81¢76¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$2,181 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$3,998 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$4,822 on No at 82¢

82¢76¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$2,627 on No at 81¢

81¢76¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$5,672 on No at 81¢

81¢76¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,880 on Yes at 23¢

23¢25¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,260 on Yes at 16¢

16¢25¢9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,640 on No at 82¢

82¢76¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$3,080 on Yes at 23¢

23¢25¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,259 on Yes at 21¢

21¢25¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$7,000 on Yes at 21¢

21¢25¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$2,000 on No at 82¢

82¢76¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$13,171 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,984 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$1,560 on Yes at 22¢

22¢25¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

1d ago

$6,320 on Yes at 21¢

21¢25¢4¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$3,600 on Yes at 20¢

20¢25¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,232 on No at 77¢

77¢76¢1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$3,576 on Yes at 25¢

25¢25¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,520 on No at 76¢

76¢76¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,155 on No at 77¢

77¢76¢1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,753 on Yes at 17¢

17¢25¢8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$22,020 on No at 85¢

85¢76¢9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$3,360 on No at 84¢

84¢76¢8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$25,000 on No at 85¢

85¢76¢9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,915 on Yes at 18¢

18¢25¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,500 on No at 82¢

82¢76¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$8,130 on No at 81¢

81¢76¢5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$5,998 on Yes at 7¢

7¢25¢18¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$1,778 on Yes at 8¢

8¢25¢17¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

2d ago

$4,678 on Yes at 7¢

7¢25¢18¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

4d ago

$11,700 on Yes at 10¢

10¢25¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

4d ago

$7,200 on Yes at 10¢

10¢25¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

4d ago

$2,025 on Yes at 10¢

10¢25¢15¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

6d ago

$8,611 on No at 89¢

89¢76¢13¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

6d ago

$12,817 on No at 86¢

86¢76¢10¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

7d ago

$2,875 on No at 83¢

83¢76¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

7d ago

$1,322 on No at 83¢

83¢76¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

8d ago

$2,490 on No at 83¢

83¢76¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

8d ago

$1,200 on No at 83¢

83¢76¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

8d ago

$2,866 on Yes at 18¢

18¢25¢7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

8d ago

$7,878 on Yes at 19¢

19¢25¢6¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

9d ago

$2,155 on Yes at 16¢

16¢25¢9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

9d ago

$6,918 on No at 85¢

85¢76¢9¢

Related Theses