Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
261 signals across 1 market · $1,532,460 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to “normal” by IMF Portwatch’s 7-day average measure before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Traders are betting Yes or No on whether reported transit calls reach the required threshold, with PolySpotter tracking $446K+ in smart money activity and notable NO-side wallet clusters.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 18-wallet cluster buying YES
High composite alert from a repeat new wallet tied to an 18-wallet funded cluster taking the contrarian Yes side on a major geopolitical shipping market.
$1,027Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 13.0 - 18-wallet funded NO cluster
High-confidence linked-wallet flow: an 18-wallet funded cluster has built $25k of No exposure on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market with recent odds moving their way.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 12.5 - 99% winner buying Yes
Surface: a highly profitable 99% win-rate wallet bought Yes, supported by serial cross-market success and same-direction flow from multiple wallets.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 12.1 - 5-wallet cluster buying Yes
High composite score from a linked 5-wallet cluster plus a 146x volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market, converting the SELL No into a BUY Yes position.
$3,328Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 11.5 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A repeat new wallet linked to a 7-wallet shared-funder cluster re-entered a No position on a high-stakes Strait of Hormuz market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$10,091Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 10.8 - 7-wallet cluster buying NO
Strong linked-wallet signal: a 7-wallet funded cluster is backing No, with this 20-day-old repeat wallet re-entering after prior No exposure.
$5,500Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 10.8 - New whale joins No cluster
A 21-hour-old wallet is rapidly scaling into No alongside a 5-wallet same-direction cluster on a high-salience shipping/geopolitics market.
$16,008Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 10.3 - 5-wallet funded cluster
Repeated new wallet tied to a 5-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes at 30¢, though the wallet’s own track record is still unproven.
$1,213Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 9.8 - Profitable serial trader buying Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market with supportive recent momentum, alongside linked-wallet activity.
$6,049Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 9.2 - 6-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 6-wallet funded cluster is taking a $1.5k NO position on a high-volume geopolitical market, though this specific wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 9.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$254,846 · 1 market · 53 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$121,001 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x4f7582…af7e$106,232 · 1 market · 11 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$82,345 · 1 market · 14 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xc6587b…b784$71,140 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$64,657 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$64,005 · 1 market · 10 alerts · 71% wins
- 0xa65c87…7997$51,615 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 59% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$39,621 · 1 market · 1 alert · 60% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$37,320 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
The live Polymarket odds reflect trader expectations that IMF Portwatch will or will not report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 Strait of Hormuz transit calls by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money positioning across the event.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show significant activity on the No side, including an 18-wallet funded NO cluster and a 12-wallet sharp buying NO signal. There has also been some Yes-side activity, including a 5-wallet cluster buying Yes.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 for any date before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. If that threshold is not reached, it resolves No.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz traffic?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global oil and shipping flows, so disruptions or normalization can affect energy markets and geopolitical risk sentiment. Prediction-market traders use the market to price the likelihood of shipping activity recovering to the specified benchmark.
Is this a single market or an event hub?
This event hub currently covers one Polymarket child market: whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end-of-June deadline. PolySpotter aggregates the live odds, smart money tracked, and alert signals in one place.