Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
This Polymarket asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by June 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to gauge geopolitical and oil-shipping risk tied to Iran, regional tensions, and global trade flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $131,600.
Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, U.S. x Iran, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$2,582 | Wallet win rate: 66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,397
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$14,105 | Wallet win rate: 66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$39,621 | Wallet win rate: 57%
5-wallet Yes cluster
Five wallets piled $70k into Yes within minutes during a 194x volume spike, creating a strong coordinated bullish signal in a major real-world shipping market.
- Five wallets bought $70k of Yes in about 11 minutes, with three large buys hitting 58¢ almost back-to-back.
- This hit during a 193.6x volume spike, suggesting fast coordinated positioning rather than routine flow.
- Several wallets have long profitable histories, including one at 77% wins and $131k profit across 74 resolved bets.
$70,005 on Yes
85% win-rate thesis trader
An 85% win-rate serial cross-market trader with over 1,000 resolved bets is buying Yes at 56¢, making this a credible thesis trade despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades across 1,060 resolved markets
- They have traded 215 markets across 136 events, which suggests a broad repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 56¢ while this market is down 18.5% over the past week, pointing to a contrarian thesis entry
$1,886 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Proven cross-market winner
A profitable high-volume trader with a 71% win rate across 386 resolved markets is adding a directional position in a news-driven geopolitical market after a sharp weekly selloff.
- This bettor has won 274 of 386 resolved markets and is up about $259k lifetime
- They trade heavily across 83 events and 155 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 65¢ after this market fell 23.5 points over the past week, signaling they may see the pullback as overdone
$2,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $41,085 (70% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $31,670 (47% win rate)
- 0x1a3f...6dea — No, $30,330
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $30,031 (66% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — Yes, $27,859 (51% win rate)
- 0xf1bf...11d7 — No, $22,673 (50% win rate)
- 0xab8f...06d6 — No, $21,578
- 0xe961...ef1b — No, $21,241
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Yes, $16,729 (77% win rate)
- 0xf661...2259 — No, $16,000
