Part of: Texas Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election in Texas, including any required runoff. The supplied market data does not include a current probability, but it shows $5,687 in tracked smart-money activity and one signal; the market resolves based on the election winner.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $272,236.

Categories: Texas Senate, Texas Midterm, Senate Elections, Ken Paxton, James Talarico, Midterms, Politics, US Election, Elections, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds Yes

A profitable, highly active trader added a sizable Yes position amid a sharp volume spike, though their win rate alone does not establish an edge at this price.

  • This trader is up $614,891 across 395 resolved bets and has traded 98 events.
  • They added $16,889 to an existing Yes position as market volume spiked to 19.8 times its historical average.

$16,889 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader added $18,099 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in the market to about $44,800.

  • This trader is up $534,835 across $12.4M invested, with 29 wins in 43 resolved bets.
  • They added $18,099 to an existing Yes position; the market has also risen 8% over the past week.

$18,099 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial trader buying Yes

A profitable, active trader bought Yes amid a 10.3x volume spike, though the $1,000 position is small relative to market liquidity.

  • This trader has won 64% of 570 resolved bets and is up about $297,000.
  • They bought Yes at 72¢ as trading volume rose to 10.3 times its historical average.
  • The $1,000 position is modest compared with the market’s $1.13 million liquidity.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly experienced, profitable trader with an 86% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing Yes position amid a 10.4x volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 86% of 443 resolved trades and is up $159,283 overall.
  • They added $10,000 to an existing Yes position as market volume spiked to 10.4 times its historical average.
  • The trade was placed at 71¢, with the market up 8% over the past week.

$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A profitable, active trader added $3,500 to an existing Yes position, though their 76% win rate does not clearly exceed their average 78¢ winning entry price.

  • This trader added $3,500 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in it to about $8,430.
  • They have won 22 of 29 resolved bets and are up $8,805, though their 76% win rate is not clearly above their average 78¢ winning entry price.

$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Eight-wallet funded cluster backs No

Eight wallets linked by a shared funder are associated with this position, making the coordinated bearish view notable despite the trader’s unexceptional win rate relative to average entry odds.

  • Eight wallets share a funder, pointing to a potentially coordinated view against a Democratic win.
  • The position sells Yes at 70¢, equivalent to buying No at 30¢; the wallet’s 70% win rate is close to its 71¢ average winning entry price.

$3,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader sold Yes, but the sale appears to be partial profit-taking from a much larger position rather than a fresh bearish bet.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 54 resolved markets and is up about $1.02M.
  • The $2,525 Yes sale may be profit-taking: the wallet previously invested $53,556 in Yes at 18¢, so it is not clear evidence of a new No thesis.

$2,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor, mixed exit flow

The wallet has a strong profitable track record, but these are opposing sells across related markets and the Texas Yes sale appears to reduce an existing position rather than open a fresh bet.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up about $300,000.
  • The trades are sells in opposite directions across two related markets, and the Texas Yes sale trims an existing position—so the flow is not a clear new directional bet.

$56,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

95% winner backing No

A highly proven bettor with 95% wins and $7.0M in profit placed an $11.8K bet on No, with cross-market positioning in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 853 of 894 resolved positions and made about $7.0M in profit.
  • They put $11,830 on No at 38¢ and also hold a position in another market tied to the event.

$11,911 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

15-for-15 profitable bettor

A strongly profitable 15-for-15 trader made sizable but opposing bets, leaving the directional signal mixed despite the standout track record.

  • This bettor has won all 15 resolved trades and is up $57,166.
  • The alert includes $6,400 on No and $2,436 on Yes, so the trader’s overall direction is mixed.
  • The trader is also adding to an existing Yes position, making the latest Yes buy a possible hedge rather than a clear reversal.

$8,836 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,041,993
  2. 0x226b...cad6 — No, $223,152 (74% win rate)
  3. 0xf031...c80c — No, $120,471 (89% win rate)
  4. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $99,066 (40% win rate)
  5. 0x16bb...8492 — No, $85,663 (95% win rate)
  6. 0xc6dd...4b9f — Yes, $83,964 (70% win rate)
  7. 0xa0f2...1848 — No, $76,144 (45% win rate)
  8. 0x5b63...11a4 — No, $62,221 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $60,000 (66% win rate)
  10. 0x9536...7e50 — No, $54,540

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

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Neither Chong nor Oh wins

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Dodgers beat Braves in high-scoring game

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Marlins win, runs stay low

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Yankees win in a high-scoring game

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Tigers win a high-scoring game

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Fed will hike rates 25 bps

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Brewers win in a high-scoring game

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Spirit wins series; Vision takes G4

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Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Texas Senate Election Winner$272,236 tracked21 signalsTexas SenateTexas MidtermSenate ElectionsKen PaxtonJames TalaricoMidtermsPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsGlobal ElectionsUnited StatesKey Senate RacesSenate midterms
Yes
74¢
No
27¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes”
77¢
72¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 16:06 UTC

$16,889 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→74¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 01:51 UTC

$18,099 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→74¢↑3¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 19:16 UTC

$1,000 on Yes at 72¢

72¢→74¢↑2¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 19:16 UTC

$10,000 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→74¢↑3¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 14:13 UTC

$3,500 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→74¢↑3¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 00:08 UTC

$3,500 on No at 30¢

30¢→27¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 20:08 UTC

$2,525 on No at 29¢

29¢→27¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-29 21:21 UTC

$56,740 on No at 30¢

30¢→27¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-26 16:07 UTC

$11,911 on No at 38¢

38¢→27¢↓11¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-26 04:37 UTC

$8,836 on No at 64¢

64¢→27¢↓37¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-22 01:16 UTC

$1,815 on No at 33¢

33¢→27¢↓6¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-21 19:33 UTC

$5,692 on Yes at 65¢

65¢→74¢↑9¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-21 19:25 UTC

$30,353 on No at 65¢

65¢→27¢↓38¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-19 18:42 UTC

$11,830 on No at 38¢

38¢→27¢↓11¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-17 01:51 UTC

$5,700 on No at 38¢

38¢→27¢↓11¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-29 18:53 UTC

$46,389 on No at 31¢

31¢→27¢↓4¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

$9,544 on No at 35¢

35¢→27¢↓8¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-08 19:07 UTC

$19,937 on No at 35¢

35¢→27¢↓8¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-15 15:06 UTC

$5,687 on Yes at 55¢

55¢→74¢↑19¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-09 18:37 UTC

$1,000 on Yes at 51¢

51¢→74¢↑23¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2026-05-19 15:24 UTC

$1,291 on No at 57¢

57¢→27¢↓30¢

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