Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

This Polymarket market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if the agreement is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity, including a recent signal adding to No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,297.

Categories: Politics, Russia, Ukraine Peace Deal, Geopolitics, putin, zelensky, zelenskyy, Ukraine, Trump

Notable Trades

New wallet adding to a large No position

A very new wallet has built a roughly $5,477 No position in a thinly traded market, though it has no resolved track record.

  • A wallet less than two hours old has about $5,477 invested in No, including this $2,297 add.
  • The latest trade was about 4.5 times the market’s $511 daily volume, showing notable conviction in a quiet market.
  • The wallet has no resolved positions yet, so there is no track record to confirm its edge.

$2,297 on No

Proven bettor adds to No

A profitable bettor with a meaningful track record is adding to an existing No position at 68 cents, supported by a 20-point edge over implied odds.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $3,770 across 21 bets.
  • They are adding $1,000 to an existing No position, showing increased conviction that no ceasefire agreement will be reached by the deadline.
  • The 68¢ entry implies roughly a 32% chance of a Yes outcome, with the market recently moving 2.5% toward Yes.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1cd4...f100 — No, $11,100 (52% win rate)
  2. 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $10,313 (45% win rate)
  3. 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $5,914 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $5,169 (52% win rate)
  5. 0xda3f...c282 — No, $3,715 (48% win rate)
  6. 0xd950...ad1b — No, $2,591 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x04bf...7caf — Yes, $2,510 (58% win rate)
  8. 0x9772...a418 — No, $2,380
  9. 0xd426...334a — No, $2,025 (52% win rate)
  10. 0xd7a2...2b21 — Yes, $2,000

Related Theses

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remains elusive

Covers 2 related markets

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$3,297 tracked2 signalsPoliticsRussiaUkraine Peace DealGeopoliticsputinzelenskyzelenskyyUkraineTrump
Yes
23¢
No
78¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
80¢
77¢
74¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

2026-09-27 22:07 UTC

$2,297 on No at 72¢

72¢→78¢↑6¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

2026-09-09 09:22 UTC

$1,000 on No at 68¢

68¢→78¢↑10¢

Related Theses