Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
14 signals across 4 markets · $37,756 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a formal or credibly reported suspension of direct military engagement, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money signals such as activity from profitable cross-market traders.
Markets (4)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?3 signals · $11,921 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?5 signals · $10,855 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?4 signals · $9,696 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?2 signals · $5,284 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- New repeat wallet on No
A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying No on a plausible information-sensitive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
$1,773Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a politics/war market with a bet that outweighed recent activity.
$4,328Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 5.0 - New profitable wallet flips Yes
Very new repeat bettor with early profits is exiting No exposure, effectively taking the Yes side on a plausible geopolitical market.
$1,335Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 659 resolved bets is buying No on a high-profile ceasefire market despite recent Yes momentum.
$2,635Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 4.0 - Cross-market ceasefire bear
A modestly profitable wallet is building a cross-market Russia-Ukraine thesis, with this $3.7k No buy nearly twice the market’s recent daily volume.
$3,700Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 4.0 - 96% winner buying YES
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outcome.
$3,150Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.0 - 94% serial cross-market bettor
A highly proven cross-market bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 10¢.
$1,575Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.0 - 87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% historical win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes at 26¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
$1,045Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.0 - 93% winner buying No
A highly experienced winning wallet is buying No in a thin Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, with cross-market positioning and a bet nearly equal to daily volume.
$1,584Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 4.0 - 96% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved-bet win rate bought $7.2k of No at 90¢ on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
$7,196Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x952aec…bdc8$11,921 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$5,765 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$5,185 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x25257a…b919$4,328 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0xbb985d…6d3c$3,700 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0x32b4e7…7f09$1,773 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x5cd5c8…ac33$1,584 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x986855…5c34$1,335 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x8fe70c…4f20$1,120 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x66d75f…5b7b$1,045 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2026?
The market-implied odds come from Polymarket trading on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money activity to show how informed traders are positioning.
What counts as a ceasefire agreement in this market?
The event resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by the deadline, either through official announcements from both sides or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the agreement.
Is smart money betting on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked smart money activity in this event, including a signal from a profitable serial cross-market trader. These signals can help show whether experienced traders are building exposure to Yes or No outcomes.
When does this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market resolve?
The market is set to resolve based on whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no qualifying agreement is reached by then, it resolves No.
Where can I track the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prediction market?
You can track the event on PolySpotter, which summarizes Polymarket odds, market movement, and smart money signals for the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.