Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
44 signals across 8 markets · $217,257 tracked · resolves Jul 1, 2027
This event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a formal or credibly reported suspension of direct military engagement, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money signals such as activity from profitable cross-market traders.
Markets (8)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?15 signals · $79,698 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?5 signals · $48,862 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?12 signals · $41,256 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?4 signals · $18,038 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?3 signals · $11,921 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?1 signal · $8,902 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?2 signals · $5,284 tracked
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?2 signals · $3,297 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet cluster backs No
Four wallets made nearly $9,900 of coordinated No exposure, alongside a 95.7x volume spike and a broader seven-wallet funding cluster.
$9,886Score: 10.6 - 7-wallet funded cluster backs Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning toward Yes, though the wallet’s historical performance is not clearly superior to its entry odds.
$1,453Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.7 - Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
$1,258Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.5 - Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
$2,965Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - Seven-wallet cluster flips to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is backing Yes as the market has risen 30% in one day, with a serial cross-market trader making a fresh directional reversal from a prior No position.
$1,520Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - Profitable serial trader takes contrarian side
A profitable serial trader is making a contrarian Yes position across related markets, with a seven-wallet shared-funder signal adding corroboration, though the trader’s win rate alone does not establish an edge.
$2,899Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - Seven-wallet funded No cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with about $5,059 of No activity, and the trading wallet has a profitable 251-bet history, though its average winning entry price suggests limited odds-adjusted edge.
$5,059Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - 6-wallet funded cluster adds No
A repeatedly flagged funded cluster is adding to a No position on a moderately quiet Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, though the individual wallet’s track record is not especially sharp after adjusting for high average win prices.
$3,397Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.5 - Sharp bettors rotating toward Yes
A coordinated shift away from No, involving several historically profitable bettors, coincides with a 15.5-point weekly rise in Yes despite conflicting individual position histories.
$25,450Score: 7.7 - 10-wallet No consensus
Ten wallets have collectively bought No for $28,186, while a highly active trader re-entered No at 70¢ before the price rose to 80¢.
$1,135Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 7.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe23495…304a$38,759 · 4 markets · 12 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x952aec…bdc8$11,921 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xe8d8e6…a403$10,488 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
- 0x4c1a4d…8985$10,000 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xd5ccdf…dea4$8,902 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$7,970 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0xf02a36…0362$6,983 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$5,765 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$5,185 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x32b4e7…7f09$5,120 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 100% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2026?
The market-implied odds come from Polymarket trading on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money activity to show how informed traders are positioning.
What counts as a ceasefire agreement in this market?
The event resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by the deadline, either through official announcements from both sides or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the agreement.
Is smart money betting on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked smart money activity in this event, including a signal from a profitable serial cross-market trader. These signals can help show whether experienced traders are building exposure to Yes or No outcomes.
When does this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market resolve?
The market is set to resolve based on whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no qualifying agreement is reached by then, it resolves No.
Where can I track the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prediction market?
You can track the event on PolySpotter, which summarizes Polymarket odds, market movement, and smart money signals for the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.