Part of: Israel military action against Beirut by...?

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will carry out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Greater Beirut by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Current odds are not provided in the available metadata; PolySpotter tracks $1,100 in smart money and recent signals favoring No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,856.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

91% winner adds to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing No position, though the edge is modest relative to the 86% entry price.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 211 resolved trades and earned approximately $593,000.
  • The wallet trades across 53 events and is adding $1,100 to an existing No position rather than making a one-off bet.
  • No was bought at 86¢, with the market now at 89¢; the entry suggests a ceiling around 95¢ for copying.

$1,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% winner adding to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate added $2,184 to an existing No position in a thin market, though the edge is modest at the 89% entry price.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 167 resolved trades and earned $41,655 in profit.
  • The $2,184 purchase represented 139% of the detected 24-hour volume in this relatively thin market.
  • The trade adds to an existing No position, showing continued conviction as No has since risen to 94%.

$2,184 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader with 199 resolved bets added $4.6K to an existing No position in a thin market, with the market subsequently moving from 65% to 75% No.

  • This trader has participated across 41 events and 62 markets, with a 72% win rate over 199 resolved bets.
  • The wallet added $4,572 to No despite already holding $7,040, making the position substantial relative to the market's $8,560 liquidity.
  • No has since risen from 65¢ to 75¢, while 24-hour volume was only $1,569—suggesting the trade had meaningful market impact.

$4,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x93fb...3e4a Yes, $7,886 (42% win rate)
  2. 0x6bab...0fe5 No, $5,317 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x2974...9c23 No, $3,864 (91% win rate)
  4. 0xeb49...693e No, $3,650 (91% win rate)
  5. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $3,256 (69% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,924 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x6c92...9627 Yes, $2,919
  8. 0x162f...798d No, $2,405 (67% win rate)
  9. 0x22e4...ef1c No, $2,163 (59% win rate)
  10. 0x7494...e2a3 Yes, $1,923

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Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

7dIsrael military action against Beirut by...?$7,856 tracked3 signalsIranIsraelLebanonHezbollahGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
6¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.

Price History — “No
96¢
90¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

8d ago

$1,100 on No at 86¢

86¢94¢8¢

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

11d ago

$2,184 on No at 89¢

89¢94¢5¢

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

24d ago

$4,572 on No at 65¢

65¢94¢29¢

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